Bitcoin MACD has dropped to bear market levels of 2022, analysts warn that a "crypto winter" may be approaching.
The price of Bitcoin has been under pressure for the past few weeks, and last week it even stopped at the $74,000 mark, which seems to indicate that the market is facing a deeper crisis following a failed rebound.
Market analyst Tony Severino pointed out today that the current price trend of Bitcoin is highly similar to that during the bear market of 2022, suggesting that the market may be on the brink of a new round of severe volatility.
This judgment is not unfounded; its main basis stems from the continuous deterioration of the LMACD indicator in Bitcoin's two-week chart.
As a key indicator of trend momentum, the MACD histogram (green) is currently below the neutral line, and the signal line (red) is showing a tendency to expand, indicating that downward momentum is increasing.
Severino specifically mentioned that the extent of the MACD indicator's expansion has reached its lowest level since 2022, when the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem had a huge impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.
Severino also warned that such extreme technical signals often indicate that "some bad things may be about to happen," suggesting that a crypto winter may be quietly approaching.
The similarity in market performance of the two-week Bitcoin LMACD momentum indicator to the trends of the 2022 Luna crash undoubtedly rings alarm bells for the market.
Looking back at historical data, similar bear market signals appeared after the collapse of Terra in May 2022, where Bitcoin's price fell sharply from above $50,000 to around $30,000 within just two months, a drop of about 40%.
Although MACD is a lagging indicator, the information it reflects may have already been partially digested by the market, and Bitcoin has already dropped nearly 30% since 2026, the deterioration of this technical indicator still serves as a warning bell for investors.
As of the time of writing, BTC's price is around $67,800, with little fluctuation in the past 24 hours. This sideways consolidation may suggest that the market is waiting for new directional guidance.