According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg's U.S. Economic Surprise Index has turned positive for the first time since February this week. Meanwhile, the GDP growth for the second quarter of 2025, initial claims for unemployment benefits, and personal spending data all exceeded expectations. Historically, when the Economic Surprise Index rises and remains positive, the U.S. dollar tends to strengthen.

Additionally, the speculative short positions on the dollar held by asset management companies and leveraged funds have reached their highest level since early 2021.