To be honest, I am quite uncertain about things right now. Market sentiment has shifted dramatically from extremely optimistic to nearly fifty-fifty within a month, and this rapid reversal itself indicates a high degree of uncertainty in the environment.
There are several main reasons for my uncertainty: first, the publicized and intensified internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with even some previously moderate officials turning cautious. Second, the critical economic data (especially official employment and inflation data) has gaps due to the previous government shutdown, leading both the market and the Federal Reserve itself to feel like they are 'flying blind,' making it difficult to accurately assess the economic situation. In this context of information ambiguity, officials' statements may lean more conservative, as 'seeking stability' is the instinctive choice.
In a situation where this uncertainty has become the norm, I believe the most important thing is to remain patient and continue to observe. The key going forward is to see whether the economic data released after the 'shutdown' can provide a clearer picture.
At the same time, adapting to the unpredictability of the Federal Reserve's policy path may become the new normal. It is best to avoid betting on the future market trend with a single 'nailed down' direction, and instead prepare for various possibilities.
If you are uncertain about the current market direction, it is important to avoid blindly chasing gains and selling at a loss, as this will help you establish clear operational discipline, such as setting reasonable stop-loss points and managing risks by building positions in batches.