Digital gold's luster has dimmed, as Bitcoin fell back to pre-liberation levels overnight. The $90,000 defense line is like a layer of window paper, easily punctured under the dual pressure of Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations and leveraged liquidations.
The Bitcoin market experienced a shocking scene, with the price falling below the $90,000 mark, dipping as low as $89,000, setting a new low since April. This nearly month-long decline has caused a total evaporation of $1.2 trillion in the cryptocurrency market, equivalent to the entire market capitalization of a Tesla company.
In the past 24 hours, cryptocurrency investors have been sleepless. Over 113,000 people across the network faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount reaching $288 million. Many investors lamented on social media: "It's a total disaster, my account has shrunk by half!"
01 Downtrend Review: Falling from Heaven to Earth
On Monday during the Asian trading session, Bitcoin's decline accelerated suddenly, breaking through multiple integer levels, and ultimately found support only near $89,000. From the charts, bulls seemed to have no power to fight back.
Looking back to early October, Bitcoin proudly stood at the historical peak of $126,200. Who would have thought that in just a month and a half, it would drop nearly 30%, erasing all gains since 2025.
It's not just Bitcoin taking a hit; the entire crypto space is in disarray. Ethereum has fallen from $3,918 to $2,946, a monthly decline of 24.8%; mainstream altcoins like Solana and Cardano have generally seen declines of over 30%; the worst-hit is Dogecoin, which has nearly halved compared to its October peak, with a market cap evaporating by $5.2 billion.
02 Macroeconomic Storm: The Fed is the Director Behind the Scenes
This recent Bitcoin crash appears to be an internal issue within the crypto space, but the root cause lies in the traditional financial market.
The Fed's every move impacts all risk assets. As the market's expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed fall below 50%, smart money is starting to exit high-risk assets.
Morgan Stanley bluntly stated in its latest report: If the Fed chooses to stand still in December, dollar liquidity will tighten further, and Bitcoin, as a non-yielding asset, will be the first to feel the impact.
'The liquidity premium is fading,' said Shiliang Tang, managing partner at Monarq Asset Management, 'Funding cost expectations have changed, and Bitcoin breaking below $100,000 is just the beginning.'
When it rains, it pours. Trump is back stirring the pot, threatening a 20% tariff on EU imported cars on November 15, and the shadow of global trade frictions has led investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold.
03 On-chain Underflow: Whales Retreat, Leverage Collapse
CoinGecko data shows that since the cryptocurrency market cap peaked on October 6, approximately 25% has evaporated, equivalent to $1.2 trillion disappearing.
What’s more concerning is that addresses holding over 1,000 Bitcoins, known as 'whales,' collectively reduced their holdings by 23,000 in November, with a reduction rate of 12%. These big players have the sharpest instincts, and their movements often indicate the future direction of the market.
The scene from November 4 is still fresh: a sudden sale of 5,000 Bitcoins emerged, causing the price to drop from $102,000 to $99,000, triggering a large number of programmatic stop-loss orders, forming a 'sale-triggered decline, decline-triggered more sales' death spiral.
Leverage is the amplifier of this plunge. The current leverage ratio in the cryptocurrency market remains at a historical high of 18%. When Bitcoin broke below $100,000, long positions using more than 20x leverage fell like a row of dominoes.
BitMEX data shows that the open interest in futures plummeted from the peak of $68 billion in October to $41 billion, and the painful process of deleveraging is far from over.
04 Technical Battle: Bulls and Bears Clash, Every Move is Critical
Yesterday, our analysis accurately predicted Bitcoin's rebound position, suggesting shorting around $92,900 to $94,000, and this morning reminded to reduce positions to break even when it dropped to around $90,000—did you keep up with this operation?
From a technical perspective, although Bitcoin has broken through key support levels, a short-term rebound is brewing.
Key support is around $89,490, where Bitcoin has found a breather. The main resistance is in the range of $92,900 to $94,200, where a clear bearish trend line is forming.
If Bitcoin can break through the resistance zone of $94,200 in one go, the next target will be $95,000. If it can securely maintain above $95,000, it is likely to further test the resistance levels of $96,000 to $96,700.
05 Practical Strategy: Long and Short Layout, Two-pronged Approach
Bullish friends can focus on layout opportunities around $89,450 to $89,000, aiming towards $92,500, with a keen eye on resistance near $94,200.
Bearish comrades can wait for a rebound to $92,900 to $93,700 to $94,200 for short opportunities, targeting around $90,000, with further potential down to $89,000 (remember to reduce positions after reaching the first target, with remaining positions possibly playing around $88,800 to $85,000).
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out on the X platform: 'In the past year, every death cross for Bitcoin has marked a local bottom, but the painful experience of 2022 tells us that a death cross can also trigger a prolonged bear market.'
Currently, Bitcoin's RSI has dropped sharply from the high of 80 in October to 25. Although it has entered the oversold area, the MACD line and signal line are still in deep negative territory, indicating that the downward momentum has not yet been fully released.
06 Capital Flow: Institutional Defection, Ecological Transformation
Institutions that once supported Bitcoin are now withdrawing en masse. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for five consecutive weeks, as institutions seem to have collectively 'defected.'
BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw a net outflow of $523 million in a single day, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow since the fund's inception. Behind the institutional exodus is the collapse of the dual investment logic of 'rate cuts + regulatory easing.'
However, there are opportunities in crises. The market ecology is undergoing profound changes, and practical cryptocurrencies are beginning to emerge. The OzakI token, combining blockchain and AI, surged 11 times during its presale, while the Remittix in the payment sector secured $28 million in funding—indicating that capital is merely shifting positions rather than leaving the market.
07 Key Focus: The Life-and-Death Line is on December 10
All investors are focusing on the Fed's meeting on December 10. Historical data shows that since 2020, as long as the Fed signals a rate cut, Bitcoin often sees a rebound of 15% to 20% within 1 to 3 months.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, issued a warning: Bitcoin has fallen from $125,000 to $90,000, while U.S. stocks remain at historical highs, indicating that 'a credit event is brewing.'
Hayes believes that if the broader risk market collapses and the Fed and Treasury are forced to accelerate money printing, Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year.
On-chain data analyst Murphy reminds investors to remain cautious: the 7-day average of Bitcoin's profit supply percentage has fallen below 70%, indicating that this round of decline has caused nearly 30% of all chips on the chain to fall into a loss state.
Both bulls and bears are fiercely battling around $92,000, with every point being fiercely contested. After finding support around $89,000, Bitcoin is attempting to organize a counterattack.
Everyone's attention is focused on December 10—this significant test that will determine Bitcoin's fate will provide a final answer: will it plunge into the abyss of $85,000, or will it regain momentum and launch a counterattack towards the $100,000 mark?
The market will never lack opportunities; what it lacks is patience. In this time of extreme panic, it's worth recalling every crisis in Bitcoin's history—each ultimately became a new starting point.
Written by: EB Speculator
(This article represents personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice. Market risks exist; invest cautiously.)
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