Based on the current market data, institutional research reports, and on-chain analysis, I provide you with a more direct and specific analytical outlook. Based on the logical reasoning of existing information.
Probability and price range
Probability of a significant increase: moderately high (approximately 60%-70%)
The logic is that institutional trends (ETFs) and macro policy shifts (interest rate cuts) are strong and sustainable driving forces. As long as these two fundamentals do not undergo a fundamental reversal, the market is more likely to return to an upward channel after digesting the short-term profit-taking pressure.
Upside target: core range seen at $150,000 - $200,000
This is the year-end target price given by several mainstream investment institutions (such as Standard Chartered and Bernstein). If market sentiment is extremely enthusiastic, driven by liquidity, there is a possibility of hitting $250,000 or even higher, but this belongs to a low-probability extreme optimistic scenario.
Downside risk level: Strong support range is between $80,000 - $90,000
This is an important defense line in the current bull market. If it falls below, it means market sentiment may shift, with the next key support level that must be held around $70,000 (the historical high before the last breakout). In extreme pessimistic scenarios (such as a black swan event breaking out), a pullback to $60,000 is not impossible, but the probability is low.
⚖️ The two sides of the decision balance
To make it clearer for everyone, I will further clarify the core driving forces and observation points on both sides of 'rise' and 'fall':
The bullish confidence comes from (why the probability is moderately high):
ETF buying is solid: The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is the most convenient channel for global compliant funds to enter, and its continued net inflow will directly support and drive up the coin price.
The halving effect is still fermenting: The supply contraction effect caused by Bitcoin's fourth halving (April 2024) will gradually manifest within the next 6-12 months.
'Trump trade' expectations: The market expects that after Trump's election, he will implement more favorable policies for cryptocurrencies, which constitutes significant emotional support.
The bearish risk lies in (why the road is not smooth):
Short-term overbuying and high leverage: The market has accumulated a large number of profit-taking positions after a rapid rise, and any slight disturbance may trigger a 'long squeeze' type of decline, where liquidating high-leverage positions will amplify volatility.
Policy benefits may 'land': If Trump's policy details disappoint, or key cryptocurrency legislation faces obstacles, the current optimistic expectations may quickly reverse.
Global macroeconomic upheaval: If U.S. inflation re-emerges, leading the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts or even restart rate hikes, global risk assets will face enormous pressure, and Bitcoin will find it difficult to remain immune.
To summarize:
The most likely scenario (high probability): The market will gain strong support in the $80,000 - $90,000 range and oscillate upward, challenging previous highs again, with the potential to reach above $150,000 by the end of the year.
Scenarios to be cautious about (low probability but need to guard against): Negative factors stacking up causing prices to break key support, deeply retracing to $70,000 or even lower.
