đ¨ Has Bitcoinâs Four-Year Cycle Failed? Hereâs Whatâs Really Happening
Bitcoin did follow its halving roadmap â bottom, halving, new high â but the 2024â2025 cycle feels completely different. No frenzy, no explosive altseason, no mania. So whatâs going on?
đ Why People Think the Cycle Failed
â ī¸ BTC hit a new high at ~$125K but fell 25% within weeks, dipping below $90K.
đ¨ Altcoins didnât rotate â BTC dominance stayed near 59%.
đ Gains weaker vs past cycles: only 7â8x from 2022 lows and <2x post-halving.
đ§ Market feels slow, dull, and emotionless compared to 2017/2021.
đĸ ETFs + institutions now dominate, suppressing volatility and changing price behavior.
â But Parts of the Cycle Still Work
đ Halving supply shock still drives long-term upside.
đ On-chain cycle indicators (MVRV, SOPR, RHODL) still show clear top/bottom behavior.
đ Each cycleâs ROI is shrinking â a normal trend as market size grows.
đ§ What Disrupted the Rhythm
đĻ Spot ETFs changed the structure â slow, steady accumulation & sharp outflows.
đĨ Narratives are fragmented: ETFs â inscriptions â Solana â memes â AI â prediction markets.
đ Reflexivity: everyone front-runs the halving, causing early buying + early profit-taking.
đ§ Market Consensus
Some say the cycle is dead (institution-driven now).
Others say the cycle is alive but deformed.
Many agree: the bull peak was in October 2025, and weâre now in an early-bear or distribution phase.
đĄī¸ Bottom Line
The cycle isnât gone â itâs just messy and harder to read.
This phase looks more like defense mode than the start of a new bull run.
đ Survive first. Opportunities come later.
đ Real bottoms form slowly.
đ Donât go all-in during emotional noise.
