When Bitcoin plummets 15% in a single week, with over 180,000 people liquidated for more than $1 billion, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies evaporates by $1.2 trillion in two months, the Federal Reserve's 'rate cut big gift' suddenly hits the market—restarting the first rate cut in 2025 in September, with the dot plot further suggesting another 50 basis points cut within the year, the federal funds rate may drop to the 3.5%-3.75% range!

On one side, inflation remains high at 3%, with core PCE sticking at 3.1% as a 'hard nut to crack'; on the other side, the Federal Reserve rarely raises the economic growth rate to 1.6%, daring to continuously ease restrictions in a risk-balanced manner with a 'big move'—is this operation sending liquidity to the crypto circle or digging a pit for the next round of harvesting?

1. The truth behind the rate cut: It's not about saving the market, but 'forced balance'

Never be misled into thinking that the Federal Reserve is the 'savior' of the crypto space! This rate cut is essentially a policy compromise:

- The job market has already raised a red flag: Employment growth is slowing, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased; although still at a low level, signals of a cooling labor market are evident, and failing to cut rates may trigger economic downturn risks;

- The policy path has been laid out: There have been three consecutive rate cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024; after five consecutive pauses in 2025, easing will restart, essentially continuing the 'steady growth' main line;

- Inflation risks have not been eliminated: The Federal Reserve raised the 2026 PCE inflation expectation to 2.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast, indicating that the degree of easing is still constrained by inflation; the rate cut is not 'flooding the market' but 'precise drip irrigation'.

For the crypto space, this means: liquidity will marginally improve, but the crazy bull market of 2020 will not reappear—after all, the federal funds rate remains above 4%, and dollar assets still have a deposit rate of 4.15% attractiveness, so funds will not easily flow back into the high-risk crypto market.

2. Two outcomes for the crypto space: Core assets resist declines, altcoins face a wave of zeroing

History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Referencing the market performance after the rate cuts in 2024, and the current situation of a $1.2 trillion market cap shrinkage, this wave of rate cuts will accelerate market differentiation:

- Bitcoin/Ethereum: Consolidating at the bottom, maintaining key support: Bitcoin's cost line of $75,000 and Ethereum's support level of $2,500 are unlikely to be broken due to institutional holdings (spot ETF funds) and halving cycle logic. Once the rate cut is implemented, liquidity will first flow into compliant, highly consensus core assets, creating a 'safe haven effect';

- Altcoins/Pump-and-Dump Coins: The bubble is accelerating its burst: Projects with no technical support and purely reliant on narrative speculation will only complete their final wave of selling due to interest rate cuts. Leveraged funds that can no longer withstand the high-interest environment will not return just because of a 50 basis point cut; instead, they will take the opportunity to exit, leading to further declines in altcoins and even mass zeroing;

- Compliant tracks become the biggest winners: RWA (Real World Asset tokenization), AI + Oracles, and other tracks with practical application scenarios will attract traditional capital and compliant funds to enter, becoming 'certain opportunities' in the rate cut cycle—after all, institutions like BlackRock and Ondo have already laid out plans; compliance is the only channel for fund inflow.

3. Current operational strategy: Don't chase the rise, grab 'certain opportunities'

The Federal Reserve has already signaled a rate cut, but the survival rule in the crypto space has never been 'betting on policy' but 'managing risk':

1. Spot layout: Focus only on core assets, buy in batches: Bitcoin in the $75,000-$80,000 range and Ethereum in the $2,500-$2,700 range can be accumulated in 3-5 batches, with a single asset position not exceeding 30%, avoiding small coins that might surge in the short term;

2. Contract operations: Light positions for speculation, don’t be greedy: If Bitcoin rebounds to the $90,000-$95,000 range and Ethereum rebounds to the $2,900-$3,000 range, light short positions can be opened (set stop-loss at the previous high breakout); when retesting key support levels, small positions can be long, with a strict stop-loss controlled within 5% to avoid being 'swept' by 'false breakouts';

3. Risk avoidance checklist: Stay away from three types of projects: Meme coins with no practical applications, small coins with liquidity pools below $10 million, and high-leverage financial products with no compliance backing; these are likely to be abandoned by funds once the rate cut is implemented.

Finally, a reminder: Beware of the 'overdrawn expectations' adjustment risk

The current market has already priced in the expectation of 'one more 50 basis point cut this year'; Bitcoin's rebound from a low of $80,600 to $85,800 is the best proof. However, the Federal Reserve's dot plot predictions have never been set in stone—six officials still support maintaining the current interest rate, and policy implementation has uncertainties.

Once subsequent inflation data rebounds and the job market unexpectedly heats up, the cooling of rate cut expectations may trigger a 'reverse adjustment' in the crypto space. Therefore, the most important thing to do now is not to chase the rising market, but to take advantage of the rebound to reduce leverage, optimize positions, and concentrate funds on core assets that can weather the cycle.

Opportunities in the crypto space are always hidden in the 'divergences after policy implementation', not in the 'frenzy of speculative expectations'. Whether this wave of rate cuts is an opportunity or a trap depends on whether you hold Bitcoin or an air coin that could zero out at any time.#美联储重启降息步伐 #美股2026预测 #比特币波动性 #鲍威尔发言 #加密货币政策 $BTC $ETH $ZEC