November 24, 2025
The market withstood Monday's daytime test for now, and has seen a slight rebound compared to yesterday. Bitcoin and Ethereum, in particular, haven't broken down further, making a sudden plunge tonight less likely. In retrospect, weekend purchases may have secured shares at a temporary bottom. However, current prices are still significantly lower than before, and a small rebound isn't something to be overly excited about.
Besides the price stabilization, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has recently fallen back to a normal range, having previously broken through 1.001. If this indicator holds true, then this downward trend will come to an end. Why did the rise in the USDC exchange rate cause the price to fall? Mainly because dumping and withdrawing funds is commonly done in USDC, especially by compliant institutions like BlackRock. Therefore, the return of the exchange rate to positive territory at least indicates that the recent large-scale redemptions have been completed.
Another reason I believe the market has reached a recent bottom is that sentiment had already reached extremely low levels before the weekend's decline. As I mentioned at the time, price bottoms often lag behind sentiment bottoms. Therefore, from a sentiment perspective, the market's pessimistic atmosphere has actually faded, and the early reversal of sentiment will provide reverse support to the market. People are less panicked and are more willing to buy.
Of course, the current overall trend is only a possibility of stabilization or a short-term rebound; a real counterattack is unlikely. Judging from the duration of the consolidation, it will likely continue until at least the end of December. However, in terms of price, the possibility of a further significant decline in the near future is unlikely. As I mentioned a couple of days ago when I started my buying operation, the plan was to enter the market in several stages based on the strength of the decline. I feel that the current position offers good value, although it's not yet time to buy blindly.
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