Macroeconomic Storm: A Shift in Sentiment Towards "Risk Aversion"
The recent decline is not a crypto-specific event, but part of a broader sell-off that has included high-risk assets, led by technology and artificial intelligence stocks.
1️⃣Fading Hopes for Interest Rate Cuts:
The main driver of this shift has been the markets' reassessment of their expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. After pricing in a nearly 90% chance of interest rate cuts in December, that probability has dropped to around 40% only.
This change came as a result of hawkish statements from Fed officials and economic data, such as the jobs report, which showed that the economy remains resilient, reducing the need for the central bank to ease monetary policy soon.
The "high interest rates for a longer period" environment harms assets that depend on liquidity and future growth, such as #Bitcoin.
2️⃣Unprecedented correlation with stocks:
During this period of pressure, the short-term correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 reached record levels.
This behavior confirms that institutional investors are treating Bitcoin as a high-risk speculative asset, similar to growth stocks, rather than as "digital gold" or a safe haven.
When investors lose their appetite for risk in tech stocks, they also lose it in cryptocurrencies.
3️⃣Internal market pressures: From institutional buying to mass exits
In conjunction with the headwinds of the macroeconomic environment, the crypto market faced immense selling pressure from within, exacerbating the downward wave.
4️⃣Bleeding of ETFs: Spot Bitcoin funds, which were the main driver of the bull market earlier this year, have become the largest channel for institutional outflows.
November saw the worst monthly performance for these funds since their launch, with net outflows approaching $3 to $4 billion.
The IBIT fund of BlackRock alone recorded the largest daily withdrawal in its history, exceeding $523 million.
These outflows are forcing fund managers to sell actual Bitcoin in the open market, creating direct and intense selling pressure.
5️⃣The impact of forced liquidation of debts:
The market is still suffering from the effects of the "flash crash" that occurred on October 10, which saw nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated.
This event weakened market liquidity and made it fragile. With the recent price drop and the breaking of key support levels, a new wave of forced liquidations was triggered, accelerating the pace of decline in a vicious cycle of selling.
6️⃣Movements of "whales" and long-term holders:
On-chain data shows that large investors (whales) and long-term Bitcoin holders have begun to take profits after significant rises this year. Large amounts of Bitcoin have been observed moving from private wallets to exchanges, indicating a selling intention and an increase in the available supply in the market.
🚨Technical analysis and market sentiment: Breaking psychological barriers
Continuous selling pressure has led to the collapse of critical technical and psychological levels, triggering more fear and pushing sentiment indicators into the danger zone.
1️⃣Key price levels: The collapse of Bitcoin's price below the $100,000 level and then $90,000 had a significant psychological impact on investors. Currently, analysts are watching the support area between $80,000 and $85,000. If this level is broken, it could open the door for a deeper decline towards the $75,000 to $78,000 areas, which represent historical support zones and potential liquidation levels.
2️⃣Fear and greed index: This sharp decline has reflected on market sentiment, as the "fear and greed index" shifted from a state of "extreme greed" that prevailed in October to "extreme fear" currently, indicating a state of panic among retail investors.
🟢🔴Potential bottom signals: Is the end of the selling wave near?
Despite the grim picture, there are a number of on-chain indicators that often appear near major bottoms in bear markets, providing a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.
1️⃣Capitulation of short-term holders: Realized losses incurred by short-term Bitcoin holders (those who bought near the peak) have reached levels not seen since the collapse of the FTX platform. Historically, this type of mass capitulation and panic selling is a classic sign of seller exhaustion and the formation of a market bottom.
2️⃣Outflows from exchanges: In stark contrast to ETF inflows, exchanges themselves recently recorded one of the largest outflows in history. This means that investors are pulling their coins from exchanges into their own wallets, a move that typically indicates a long-term holding intention rather than immediate selling.
Every significant external outflow event in the past has represented the beginning of a major upward wave.
3️⃣Stablecoin liquidity: Reserves of stablecoins (like USDT and USDC) on trading platforms have reached their highest levels in 2025.
These reserves represent "dry powder" or latent purchasing power waiting on the sidelines. Historically, periods of accumulation of stablecoins have preceded significant price increases in Bitcoin, as this liquidity can serve as fuel for the next upward wave when sentiment improves.
#Summary
The Bitcoin market currently stands at a critical crossroads. On one hand, it is under immense pressure from a risk-off macroeconomic environment and an unprecedented institutional selling wave across ETFs. On the other hand, internal on-chain indicators are flashing strong signals of seller capitulation and potential bottom formation, conditions that have historically preceded major turning points in the market.
Recent events have shown that Bitcoin is currently behaving as a high-risk asset, closely linked to stock markets and central bank policies. While further declines remain a possibility if macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate, the convergence of strong capitulation signals suggests that the period of maximum selling pressure may be about to end.
The burden of proof now lies with buyers to absorb the remaining selling pressure and establish a new support area, which could pave the way for a technical rebound or the beginning of a new accumulation phase.
Share your opinion in the comments: Do you expect a strong upward wave for Bitcoin? Or further declines?
#تحليل_العملات_الرقمية #تحليل_بيتكوين #تداول_فوري #تداول #BTC
