November 26, 2025
Looking at the market situation, there is currently no direct indication of a second bottoming out, and the recovery of the U.S. stock market has given more confidence to the market's upcoming trends. It was mentioned yesterday that this wave of market recovery is directly benefiting from the expectations of interest rate cuts in December. The latest monetary policy meeting is scheduled for the 9th-10th of next month, and currently, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is about 80%. Therefore, whether it is the U.S. stock market, gold, or the cryptocurrency sector, prices have experienced varying degrees of rebound.
If we look at the prices of U.S. stocks and gold, we will actually find that both are in a high-level consolidation phase and have not shown a significant decline. Instead, the cryptocurrency sector has led the decline of global assets this time. However, thinking from another perspective, since other assets are not in a bear market but are continuing to follow the rhythm, this decline in the cryptocurrency sector may be a good opportunity? If there is indeed a major market movement later, one can jump higher after a deep squat. Moreover, this wave has experienced a crash on 1011 and subsequent large declines, including the explosion of some stablecoin projects, which means the effect of deleveraging is significant.
Of course, the cryptocurrency market has its inherent cycles. According to the four-year cycle perspective, next year will be a bear year, which contradicts the rhythm of the interest rate reduction cycle. In fact, I believe more in the four-year cycle. Looking back, the market in October and November was also a peak, and objectively speaking, it is unlikely to have a very violent rally in the next 1-2 months. However, for crypto investment, there is one advantage: 'At worst, just hold for another four years!'
For quality assets, this bull market's performance of BTC can be considered perfect, but for other assets, including ETH and DeFi blue-chip projects, it is less satisfactory. The reason for not increasing positions in October is that the price of ETH did not break above 5000. Since that is the case, let's just hold on. In fact, even according to the four-year cycle, there will be small-scale bull markets in between. Moreover, the price performance of other assets remains strong, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic.
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