1. Macroeconomics and Financial Environment: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 84.9%, and expectations for liquidity easing provide support for risk assets like Ethereum; additionally, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, with total net inflows surpassing $12.8 billion, continuously injecting capital momentum into prices. However, factors such as U.S. tariff pressures and geopolitical uncertainties have kept market caution from fully dissipating.
2. Technical Analysis: The daily chart has shown three consecutive days of gains, with MACD forming a golden cross and red bars continuing to expand; however, the DIF value remains below the zero line, indicating that mid-term momentum needs to be repaired. The hourly chart had previously shown a significant upward movement, but currently, MACD is showing the early signs of a bearish cross at a high level, suggesting potential adjustments in the short term. The moving average support has risen to around 2900, and the current price needs to focus on the stabilization situation around the 3000 level, with resistance noted in the $3080 - $3100 range, while strong support lies in the $2900 - $2935 area. Overall, Ethereum has a foundation for a short-term corrective trend, but following a significant daily increase, fluctuations may occur due to profit-taking, making it essential to focus on the defense of key price levels and manage risk effectively.
