American Thanksgiving has become an interesting timestamp in Bitcoin's history $BTC . Since the launch of the digital currency in 2009, the price of Bitcoin has experienced massive fluctuations around this holiday, with the fourth quarter of the year typically considered the most bullish for the crypto market. However, historical analysis shows that performance around Thanksgiving is mixed: up in 8 years and down in 7 years over 15 years, with average returns close to zero (less than 1%) from the close on the Wednesday before the holiday to the open on the Monday after. In this article, we review the price evolution of Bitcoin each year on Thanksgiving Day, focusing on annual highs and lows, based on historical data from reliable sources like CoinMarketCap and analyses from Protos and Watcher Guru.
Humble beginnings: from 2010 to 2013
Bitcoin began its journey as an emerging currency at low prices, but it experienced exponential growth during this period, driven by the emergence of the first exchanges like Mt. Gox.
2010: The price of Bitcoin was $0.28. The currency was still in its early stages, and there was no organized daily market.
2011: The price rose to $2.49 (+789%), with the beginning of academic and technical interest.
2012: It reached $12.51 (+402%), as discussions about its potential as an alternative to traditional currencies began.
2013: The price exploded to $813 (+6,401%), driven by the first market bubble and global awareness, but it was the peak day before the later collapse of Mt. Gox.
The first fluctuations: 2014-2016
These years saw a correction after the bubble, with sharp declines followed by recoveries, reflecting the gradual maturation of the market.
2014: It dropped to $376 (-54%), affected by the collapse of Mt. Gox and loss of confidence.
2015: The decline continued to $328 (-13%), with investors focusing on government regulations.
2016: It recovered strongly to $739 (+125%), with increased commercial adoption such as buying Bitcoin with credit cards.
Peak and collapse: 2017-2018
The year 2017 was the most exciting, as Bitcoin reached its historical peak, but 2018 saw the "crypto winter."
2017: It jumped to $8,771 (+1,086%), with market frenzy driving the price towards $20,000 a few weeks after the holiday.
2018: It collapsed to $4,015 (-54%), affected by regulations and the rampant bubble.
Gradual recovery: 2019-2021
This period began with a recovery, supported by the COVID-19 pandemic and the entry of institutions.
2019: It rose to $7,150 (+78%), with increased interest from companies like Tesla.
2020: It doubled to $18,764 (+162%), driven by government stimulus and the adoption of PayPal.
2021: It reached a new peak of $58,927 (+214%), with increases driven by financial institutions.
Correction and return: 2022-2024
These years witnessed fluctuations due to economic recession and geopolitical events.
2022: It dropped to $16,353 (-72%), in the worst "Thanksgiving," affected by the collapse of FTX and rising interest rates.
2023: It recovered to $37,000 (+126%), with news about Bitcoin ETF funds.
2024: It reached $95,380 (+158%), with SEC approval of the ETF, pushing the price towards $100,000.
Current situation: 2025 and outlook
In 2025, Thanksgiving (November 27) comes amid fluctuations, as the price dropped by 20% in November due to uncertainty around Federal Reserve policies. However, it saw a 13% increase in the past few days, reaching over $91,000 on November 26, breaking the traditional "curse" of declines before the holiday. This makes it lower than the 2024 price, but reflects a 450% growth over three years. The historical average indicates weak returns (-0.8%) on the holiday itself, but the fourth quarter often sees increases of 77% in good years. With liquidity declining during the holiday, the market may remain stable, but analyses suggest the possibility of breaking $95,000 if the positive momentum continues.
