On one side, it is expected that $BTC will fly to 150K in 2025 🚀
And on the other side, someone is convinced it will return to 40K soon 💣
But the truth? It’s always in the middle… or a bit further.
I sat with the charts, delved into the series data, monitored the macro, and heard market whispers.
And this is a summary of the picture in front of me right now:
1️⃣ The peak? It seems it was 126K
- We didn’t see a price explosion, nor hysteria, nor even tweets "madness has a title"
- $BTC tried to break 120K+, but couldn't hold
- $ETH and market makers flipped at the same moment
- A trillion dollars have evaporated as if they never existed
If it wasn't a peak... it was an excellent rehearsal 🎭
2️⃣ Demand? Sleeping
- Stablecoins are no longer printed at the same pace
- ETF funds are no longer injecting
- Derivatives have lost their enthusiasm
- Everyone is waiting for the rate decision in December
Everyone is standing on the sidelines... as if the market is in a 'pause' state ⏸️
3️⃣ Liquidity? Very fragile
- Any medium trade moves the price
- The order books are empty
- One whale can shake the entire market
The situation is sensitive... as if you are walking on broken glass 🩹
4️⃣ Derivatives?
- Volatility has returned
- Everyone is trying to protect themselves, no one is taking risks
- Open interest is down until the rebounds
Simply put: no leverage, no fire 🔥
5️⃣ Series data?
- There is no panic... but there is hesitation
- The old hands are steady, not moving
- Selling from people who bought months ago, not from the big believers
- aSOPR around 1 = no profits, no losses
People are not afraid... but not confident.
6️⃣ Institutions?
- They sold billions from funds $BTC and $ETH
- OTC are quiet
- There is interest in new products, but the big money hasn't entered yet
Everyone is waiting for the green light from the macro.
7️⃣ Macro?
- The market expects a rate cut in December
- Monetary easing has started, but the Fed is not in a hurry
- Inflation is steady, and jobs are strong
I mean? We wait and see ⏳
8️⃣ This is not a crash...
It's a slow, organized, painful bleed
- There are no liquidations
- There is no panic
- Just a calm distribution in a weak market
And this is more dangerous than a crash... because it kills confidence without giving you a clear bottom.
9️⃣ The big picture?
- The bullish narrative has not died
- But the market is currently hesitant, fragile, waiting for a spark
- Financing is weak
- Exchange balances are high
- Fear is dominant
- Everyone is waiting for someone else to move first
Without a catalyst? We will return to test 72K... or maybe less.
Me? When I see the real peak or bottom... I will say it honestly, as usual.
I don't like to play the 'I told you so' game after it's too late.
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