Ethereum is struggling to rise above $3,000, with whales, derivatives traders, and macro data all signaling caution.
Main market signals
ETH has risen 15% from last week's low, trading around $3,080, but no whale accumulation has been seen yet.
TVL $99.8B → $72.3B has dropped, confirming a significant liquidity reduction across DeFi.
Network fees have decreased by 13%, $ETH burn rate has decreased, and supply has been pushed close to inflationary levels.
Despite low fees, the number of transactions remains flat - showing weak demand for block space.
Near-zero perpetual futures funding → traders are refusing to establish bullish leverage.
OKX top trader: 23% net short, market makers avoiding long exposure.
Macro pressure
U.S. consumer spending shows slowdown after data shutdown.
25,000+ layoffs announced in November - a major red flag for the risky market.
Companies warn about high costs and tight margins.
A weak labor market typically exerts heavy pressure on ETH and other risky assets.
Traders expect that the Fed will become more tolerant by early 2026, but there has been no change in ETH yet.
What is needed for ETH at $4,000
🔥 Strong liquidity flow
🔥 On-chain usage, fees, and burn increasing
🔥 Return of whale savings
🔥 Better macro signals or Fed pivot
🔥 Rebound in DeFi participation and TVL
Current outlook
For now, liquidity is tight, whales are defensive, and derivatives show no bullish appetite.
Until this situation improves, the chances of ETH recovering to $4,000 remain limited.
