The ON-CHAIN ANOMALY that broke all historical patterns.
📆 For years, the on-chain metric that compares the behavior of long-term holders with the peaks and troughs of the market has been one of the most reliable indicators for anticipating tops and corrections.
👉 It always worked the same way: when the price rose sharply, long-term holders sold. When the price fell, they accumulated and halted the decline.
That mechanism stabilized the cycle and marked the key moments.
Today it has stopped working.
📑 The data shows something completely atypical:
The price falls, but the long-term holder keeps selling.
And when the price rises, the traditional selling pressure that used to halt the rise is absent.
🔥 It is the worst of worlds in terms of historical reading, because the behavior that sustained this indicator has always been broken.
The reason is straightforward:
🐋 THERE IS NO LONGER A SYSTEM DOMINATED ONLY BY ON-CHAIN WHALES.
NOW THERE ARE INSTITUTIONAL WHALES.
A new type of player has entered, with enormous flows, operating outside of the old patterns.
These flows overlay signals, distort metrics, and render the classic behavior of the "four-year cycle" obsolete.
We are in a transition:
🪙 THE BITCOIN MODEL 13–2021 IS DYING AND THE BITCOIN WALL-STREET MODEL IS BORN.
📊 The on-chain metrics continue to be useful, but today they are contaminated by the clash between old whales and new whales.
When the dust settles, they will become useful again.
But now, the correct reading is simple:
✋️ THE MARKET HAS CHANGED HANDS.
