Similar to the trend of mainstream cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin (DOGE) continues to be under pressure due to the overall market sentiment being low, consecutively breaking through several key technical levels. Outflows of funds, a weakening structure, and a reduction in speculative enthusiasm have collectively intensified its downward trend, and doubts are growing about whether it has entered a deep adjustment phase.
Dogecoin has lost key support, and selling pressure continues to accumulate.
Dogecoin has broken below the recent upward trend line on the hourly chart and further pierced an important support zone, continuing its recent downward trend. The current price is below the 100-hour simple moving average, hovering around $0.13. The MACD indicator shows increased momentum within the bearish zone, and the RSI remains below 50, indicating that bears are dominant.
In the past 24 hours, DOGE has dropped more than 8%, continuously failing to hold multiple Fibonacci retracement levels, and has even been unable to rebound to the 23.6% retracement level of the recent decline. Analysts believe that the recent resistance is near the 50% retracement level of the drop, and only if the closing price stabilizes above this position can it relieve short-term downward pressure. If it continues to fail to break through key resistance, market momentum will still lean towards the sellers, and prices may further probe recent lows.
The funding situation and the derivatives market have weakened in tandem.
The spot market funds have shown a continuous outflow trend. The latest data shows a net outflow of about 5.7 million USD in a single day, continuing the trend of significant holders gradually reducing their positions over the past few months. The funds that previously drove the price of the cryptocurrency to around 0.30 USD have now turned into a continuous outflow, reflecting a weakening of confidence among main funds.
The derivatives market is also showing weakness. As traders choose to close positions rather than add to them during the decline, the open interest has decreased by more than 9%. Although the long-short ratio still shows a slight bullish tendency, the price has repeatedly failed to rebound, and every time DOGE attempts to break through the short-term moving average, it triggers long position liquidations, leading to a rapid collapse of the rebound.
Repeated price obstacles have caused DOGE to remain constrained below the downward moving averages in the range of 0.154 USD to 0.202 USD, with the technical structure still biased to the bearish side.
The ETF performance has been lackluster, with the market style shifting to suppression of sentiment.
The recently launched Dogecoin ETF failed to form effective support. Its main issuer's fund inflow is slightly above 2 million USD, performing far below market expectations, and showing a significant gap compared to the initial scale of mainstream asset ETFs like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The weak fund inflow reflects limited institutional interest in meme-type assets, exacerbating the market's pessimistic sentiment.
At the same time, market hotspots are gradually shifting towards assets with practical functions and payment scenarios. The decline in DOGE's trading volume and the weakening of large transaction activity both indicate that funds may be moving from meme coins reliant on network popularity to projects with more practical application foundations.#DogeETF
