#加密市场回调

This week, BTC experienced a rapid decline — the monthly line closed at around $85,000, market liquidity is tight, and the market sentiment is: returning to $50,000 is 'inevitable'.

'50k is inevitable. Be ready to buy.'

Another group of technical analysts warns that bear market predictors mention the long-term possibility of dropping to over $40,000.

At the same time, some believe: the current rebound of BTC may just be a typical 'dead-cat bounce', and does not represent the onset of a bull market. If BTC fails to return to the $88,000-$89,000 range, it may continue to decline; even there are those who are 'steady'.

My view:

This '50K' assertion actually reflects more of the market's concern about the sudden loss of liquidity and panic selling. If market sentiment continues to worsen with the macro environment — such as liquidity tightening, interest rates/inflation being unfavorable, and a strong dollar — BTC could indeed face a significant pullback.

However — considering that the current number of stablecoins has reached a new high, and there is ample 'dry powder', once market confidence is regained, a large amount of 'spare cash + stablecoins' may become the engine for a rebound. If macroeconomic/liquidity conditions improve, BTC may stabilize or even rebound.

In short: Currently, BTC is more like at a 'high risk + high potential' crossroads — if one bets right on the macro rhythm, there is an opportunity, but if wrong, it may also return to previous lows.