He invested the 120,000 he saved up for three years to buy a car all into the mainstream cryptocurrency that was then 18,000 per unit. I advised him to "leave a way out," and he rolled his eyes and said, "You don't understand the era's dividends."
Two years later, this guy opened a bottle of Romanée-Conti at a Michelin restaurant in Shanghai's Bund and sent me a video through the screen, the wine glass swaying made me dizzy: "Brother, now any meal is worth your three months' salary!" At that time, he had nearly 4 million in his account, walking with the swagger of "I am the chosen one," even specially bought a glass wine cabinet just to showcase that unfinished bottle of Conti.
Who would have thought that the cold wave in 2018 hit harder than the winter in Shanghai — mainstream coins dropped directly from a high of 120,000 to below 30,000. The numbers in his account fell like a roller coaster, and he ended up with less than 300,000. The wine cabinet was still there, but he had canceled his rental and moved into a shared room without even a balcony. One time when I went to see him, that bottle of Kandi was still on the bedside table, the label was already yellowed. He bitterly smiled and said: 'Now this thing is more expensive than my face.'
Over the past five years, I've watched him fall from the 'get-rich myth' back to 'being awake to reality', and from his blood and tears, I extracted four rules that are more valuable than gold — I’m not exaggerating; during that wave of crashes in 2023, fans who followed these rules had a maximum drawdown of only 8%, which is much steadier than those who went all-in.
1. Not enough cognition? Never reach out!
Old Zhao had a big fall back in the day: he heard that 'mining-related concept coins' could rise, without checking the project code even once, he directly threw in 500,000, and ended up losing everything overnight. Later he learned that the project didn't even have a proper white paper; it was just a facade for scamming money.
What I tell my fans the most now is: 'Don't touch projects you don't understand, no matter how much others hype them up, at the very least, you should read the white paper three times, check if there's a third-party audit, and whether the on-chain data is normal.' Last time a fan asked me about a certain air coin, I told him to look at the project's code update records, and when he saw it had been inactive for three months, he immediately understood. This is the moat of cognition that can help you avoid 90% of the pitfalls.
2. Money should be diversified; don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Now, Old Zhao has split his money into four parts, which I think is very reliable, and he has been promoting it in the community: 50% in mainstream value coins, which are resilient; 20% in infrastructure projects, like cross-chain related ones, which have long-term potential; 20% in grid trading arbitrage to earn some steady money, like automatically buying low and selling high during market fluctuations; and finally, the last 10%, at most, is for high-risk plays, even if he loses, it won't affect the overall situation.
Last year, a fan didn't listen to my advice and went all-in on a small coin, resulting in a 70% drop. He came crying to me. I said: 'If you had allocated your assets at 5:2:2:1, would it have been this bad?' Asset allocation isn't 'stinginess'; it's the law of survival in this circle.
3. Leverage is like getting hooked on smoking.
On that 'Black Thursday' in 2020, Old Zhao hit rock bottom — he was playing a 20x leverage product, and that day he got liquidated, losing 800,000. That night, he came to drink with me, his eyes red like a rabbit: 'It felt like someone was holding my head and robbing me; I didn't even have a chance to resist.'
The next day, he uninstalled all trading software, and he still feels scared when he brings it up. I keep telling my fans: 'Unless you are a professional in risk control, watching data daily to adjust positions, otherwise, don't touch leverage. This thing is like smoking; you think you can control it, but you've already been hooked. Liquidation only takes a second, the money you earn might let you enjoy a few days, but the money you lose can bring you back to square one.'
4. Don't be an information garbage can; be a 'data detective'.
Old Zhao is most grateful for two times when he avoided pitfalls by 'discerning information': before a certain algorithmic stablecoin crashed in 2022, he checked the on-chain staking rate and found something was off. It clearly said '100% collateral', but the actual data was far off, so he quickly liquidated and ended up not losing anything; another time, when a trading platform was about to have issues, while others were scrambling for high-yield investments, he checked the cold wallet transfer records and found that the platform's money was being moved out. He withdrew his assets overnight, and the platform really did close withdrawals later, which saved his life.
I often say: 'More information isn't better; accurate information is better. Don't spend every day scrolling through those 'big shots' recommendations or 'insider news'; it's better to spend half an hour checking on-chain data to see if the project is actually doing anything. This is more reliable than anything else.' Previously, a fan believed the words of a 'big shot', bought an air coin, and it ended up at zero. He came to complain to me, and I said: 'Next time, come to me to check the data; it's better than trusting a 'big shot'.
Now Old Zhao has long lost the 'get-rich dream' from back in the day. He relies on DeFi staking and cyclical rotation to earn some steady money, with a target annual return of 15%. Last time we met, he said: 'Now I sleep soundly, no longer have to get up at midnight to check the market. It's much more reassuring than back when I had 4 million in my pocket.'
In the crypto circle, many people make quick money, but very few can last five or ten years. I share white paper interpretations, on-chain data querying techniques, and pitfall avoidance guides in the community every day, not to make everyone rich overnight, but to help them avoid the detours Old Zhao took back in the day.
#加密市场反弹 $ETH
