Clearly, the interest rate cut in December is being heavily discussed, so why are retail investors still rushing in?
Do not just follow the news randomly; after the interest rate cut in December, there will be a pause window until February next year, during which the overall market trend will mostly be bearish.
How long can the Federal Reserve's sugar last?
Market expectations have surged to over 85%, but in the end, we can only trust the market's real response.
In September and October, rates were cut twice, and with a further cut of 25 basis points in December, it's clear to anyone with eyes: the U.S. economy is struggling a bit.
Recently, the U.S. government was shut down for 43 days. Right now, inflation is not the number one issue; stabilizing employment is the urgent priority. But does this mean interest rate cuts can save the market?
The black swan of Japan's interest rate hike is on the way.
What truly ignites the global market is the Bank of Japan; yesterday, the Bank of Japan's governor strongly hinted at a possible interest rate hike, hoping to raise rates to 0.75%. As soon as this statement came out, the global market reacted strongly:
Japanese government bond yields surged by 34%, the highest since 2008.
U.S. stock futures fell in response, with Bitcoin plummeting 5.5% on the same day.
Global risk assets were collectively sold off...
If Japan really raises interest rates, the market from the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December until January will be very challenging.
Where is the bottom for Bitcoin? I know you're concerned about this:
BTC weekly support is at 74,000, which will be tested repeatedly. The daily chart is essentially in a consolidation phase. If I were the main player, I wouldn’t accumulate in the 80,000 to 90,000 range because retail investors here are not desperate enough.
My short-term plans:
BTC: Watch 80,000, break below look for 75,000
ETH: Attempt a short-term long around 2720
In the current market, if you haven’t opened a short position at a high, it’s best to wait for a break below key support before going short. After all, with an interest rate cut in December, the market could rebound at any time and explode the shorts.
The market is counter-intuitive; big opportunities arise when no one is paying attention, not when there is a lot of noise; when good news comes out and the market has no reaction, that's when we should take action.
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