$BTC will reach a new peak in 2026, breaking the 4-year cycle?

According to Grayscale, BTC is unlikely to fall into a long-lasting deep downturn as many fear. The viewpoint that "$BTC always peaks and then plummets every 4 years according to halving" is no longer suitable in the current context.

Although the future is hard to predict, Grayscale believes that $BTC could reach a new peak as soon as next year. A decline of over 25% is also normal in a bull market, not a signal for a long-term downtrend.

Reasons Grayscale believes the 4-year cycle is outdated:

1️⃣ There has not yet been a parabolic increase like in previous cycles – usually a sign of a strong correction.

2️⃣ Current cash flow leans towards institutions, through ETFs and reserve companies rather than small retail cash flow on spot.

3️⃣ The macro context remains positive, the Fed is cutting interest rates, and the U.S. bipartisan support for crypto legal frameworks is increasing.