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JoJoJoleene
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The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut has reached 88.8%～
#降息预测
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JoJoJoleene
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three days left 消息面已经影响不大了，下周会有大动作吗？
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今天一起看下最新的FOMC dot plot数据吧： 1. 2025年利率预测中位数 ≈ 3.5–3.75% • 2025 年大部分黑点集中在 3.5%–4.25% 区间，但中位数蓝点（图中均为蓝色圆点）落在 约 3.5–3.75%。 → 说明：美联储预计 2025 年继续降息接近中性利率。 2. 2026–2027 年预期进一步下降 • 2026 的黑点重心下移到 2.75–3.75%，中位数≈3.0–3.25% • 2027 的重心又比 2026 低，部分预测甚至到 2.5%–2.75% → 说明：美联储预期未来通胀回落、经济放缓，从而逐步下调利率。 3. 长期利率（Longer Run）预期 ≈ 2.75–3.0% • 最右边一列显示长期中位数落在 约 2.75%-3.0% → 结论：美联储认为未来最终利率水平会稳定在3%附近（中性利率预期未变）。 4. 市场隐含利率（红点）低于官员预测 • 图中的红点代表市场根据 Fed Funds futures计算的市场预期利率 • 红点普遍比黑点中位数更低 → 说明：市场比美联储更鸽（预计降息幅度更大更快）
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there is no white horse coming to save you and dont beg those who dont give a shit about u， just hang in there. 推荐关注Charles Hoskinson 握好现货，再来一碗酸酸辣辣心灵鸡汤 I still have faith in the decentralization， what about u？#去中心化
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今年真的是修仙的一年🙋♀️
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Ambitious investors always do things patiently. They understand that true wealth is not harvested; it is cultivated through the powerful, inseparable combination of a grand vision and the quiet discipline to see it through.😃
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