Coinbase Warns Bitcoin Under Pressure
Key Concerns:
- ETF Outflows: Record cumulative net outflows in November, with trailing 7-day sum turning negative.
- Whale Distribution: Early Bitcoin whale exited an 11,000 BTC position worth $1.3 billion.
- Digital Asset Treasuries: Compressed valuations below parity for the first time since 2024, with companies trading at discounts to their Bitcoin holdings.
Market Analysis:
- Bitcoin broke through critical support levels, trading below its 200-day moving average.
- Recent buyers are underwater, with realized losses spiking to levels last seen during the November 2022 FTX collapse.
- Options markets have shifted to defensive, with traders paying premiums for downside protection.
Outlook:
- Coinbase advises caution, citing multiple bearish indicators and lack of organic demand.
- Potential forced institutional selling of $2.8 billion to $8.8 billion due to MSCI's index review.
- Stablecoin liquidity contracts, reducing "dry powder" available to chase rallies.
Contrarian View:
- Grayscale Research argues Bitcoin's current market structure differs from previous cycles, with dominance by exchange-traded products and corporate treasuries.
