Hello everyone, today on the market, both bulls and bears are repeatedly battling around the $94,000 mark, and the air is filled with the smell of gunpowder. On one side, there are warm winds blowing from the macro front, while on the other side, cold water is being poured by the funding and regulation. Bitcoin is standing at a critical crossroads. Next, let me break down this fierce game that will determine the direction of the future market.
1. The three 'trump cards' in the hands of the bulls
The current confidence of the bulls mainly comes from the clear signal of a shift in macro policy, which may be a stronger driving force than the technical aspect.
1. The 'faucet' opens again: QE expectations and liquidity injection
The most critical good news is the trend of the global capital 'faucet' opening again. The Federal Reserve officially ended quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 and unusually injected $13.5 billion in liquidity into the market. This is not just 'stopping the withdrawal' but is a clear prelude to 'starting the flow', providing the most basic fuel for all risk assets, including Bitcoin.
2. The 'helmsman' may change: New expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts
A larger change may lie within the Federal Reserve itself. The latest predictions show that the probability of economist Kevin Hassett, favored by Trump, becoming the next Federal Reserve chairman has surged to 86%. This potential 'new helmsman' has recently stated that pausing interest rate cuts now would be 'a very bad time.' As a result, the market expects a more 'dovish' Federal Reserve, more inclined to cut rates quickly, may be on the horizon. This strong medicine has completely opened the market's imagination for future liquidity.
3. Interest rate cuts are a done deal, and institutions are entering with 'real cash.'
In the short term, it is a market consensus that a 25 basis point rate cut at the December monetary policy meeting is highly probable, exceeding 93%. A low-interest rate environment acts like a magnet, pushing funds from traditional sectors towards Bitcoin. Meanwhile, global asset management giant Vanguard suddenly changed its stance, allowing clients to trade Bitcoin ETFs, which is seen as a symbolic event signaling the breach of traditional financial strongholds, bringing substantial confidence boost.
2. The three-fold 'pressure' tightly held by the bears
However, the bears are not without their weapons; the current market faces significant real pressures, mainly reflected in capital outflows and regulatory chill.
1. Capital 'bleeding': Weak ETF inflows and regulatory chill in Asia
Despite the favorable conditions, the movements of 'smart money' show divergence. The leading BlackRock Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $2.34 billion in November, while global exchange total trading volume shrank to a six-month low, indicating that incremental capital is still on the sidelines. In addition, regulatory authorities like the People's Bank of China have reiterated their firm stance on strict regulation of illegal activities related to virtual currencies, casting a shadow over the sentiment in the entire Asia-Pacific market.
2. 'Countercurrent' from the East: The Bank of Japan's unexpected turn
When global expectations are for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the Bank of Japan may 'go against the tide' and hint at a possible rate hike in December. If realized, this will drive the yen back, tightening global yen arbitrage funds and adding extra pressure on global risk assets, including Bitcoin.
3. Technical landscape: Life-and-death battle at key points
Amidst the intense counteraction of bullish and bearish news, the technical charts clearly outline the current battlefield.
· Weekly level: The previous sharp drop found strong support around $80,600 (the cloud bottom) and rebounded, indicating that the foundation of the long-term upward structure has not been destroyed.
· Daily level: The current price is precisely touching the baseline of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (around $94,000), which is the core pressure point separating bulls and bears. A breakthrough here would aim directly for $98,000 and even the $100,000 mark (this position also converges dual pressures from Fibonacci retracement and previous downtrend lines).
· Key support: The primary defense line below is in the $91,500-$90,000 range, with stronger support located around $87,000. If broken, the market will return to weakness.
· Short-term momentum: The 4-hour chart shows that the RSI has retreated from the overbought zone, and the KDJ has formed a death cross downwards, indicating a need for a test of support in the short term, accumulating strength for the next strike at the pressure point.
The current Bitcoin market is like a lake being simultaneously struck by three warm currents and three cold waves, with surface waves and deep undercurrents.
· Macroeconomic tailwinds (QE expectations, Federal Reserve leadership change, interest rate cuts) VS real pressures (capital outflows, regulatory conditions in China and Japan, Bank of Japan rate hikes) create a peculiar 'hedging pattern.'
· From a technical perspective, the $94,000 baseline is the 'mountain peak' of this battle; capturing it will open the path to new highs for the bulls; conversely, if it cannot be captured after prolonged attack, there may be a retreat to the $90,000 or even $87,000 defense line to regroup.
My view is that before the 'shoe drops' at the Federal Reserve's December meeting, the market will likely maintain high-level fluctuations. $94,000 is an excellent observation point. Aggressive traders can try small positions near this key level with strict stop-loss settings; conservative traders might patiently wait for clear direction from the market after the meeting.
Only acting at the resonance point of news and technology is wise. Stay vigilant, hold onto your positions, and let’s observe the outcome of this grand showdown together.
By: Hebei B Trader
The above is my personal market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please make rational decisions and bear the risks. #美SEC推动加密创新监管 $BTC
