The market has fluctuated and rebounded in the past couple of days, yet I am tightly holding onto my wallet without letting go. We are still far from comfortable short positions and even further from a trend reversal.
Today, let's get straight to the point and talk about why I have completely abandoned the fantasy of bottom fishing and instead embraced right-side trading and trend strategies—this is not a style; it's a necessity for survival. There are only two types of traders: one reaches out to catch the knife when it falls, while the other waits for the knife to lie flat and stop moving before bending down to pick it up. The former is called left-side, and the latter is called right-side.
Winning on the left side makes you a genius, while losing makes you a retail trader; the right side is just ordinary people who can survive longer. The essence of the right side is not prediction but confirmation. We only enter the market when the price has genuinely broken the downtrend and stabilized above key levels.
We may miss the lowest point, but what we gain is a higher probability and better sleep. Why does the price often surge after a breakout? Two hidden forces are at work: First, the upper side is a trading desert, with sparse historical sell orders, and a small amount of buying can push the price very high, just like a car accelerating on an empty highway. Second, short positions in the futures market inherently act as hidden buy orders. When the price hovers at a high level, shorts love to add positions, and stop losses are all set above the breakout point. Once triggered, they instantly become rocket fuel.
When the funding rate remains negative, it is telling you: the carriage is still full of people, and the engine hasn't started yet. True right-side trading never relies on a single candlestick or golden cross but waits for multiple signals like the 200-day moving average, trend strength, funding rate, RSI, etc., to collectively light up green; this is called resonance (which will be further analyzed later). The most expensive thing in the crypto world is not the transaction fee but vanity. Abandon the obsession of "I want to buy at the lowest" to gain the composure of "standing on the trend side."
I keep chewing on Livermore's words:
Making big money is never about the number of trades, but about being able to sit tight. The wind has changed; have you caught up? @加密黄哥