At the macro level, according to CME's "FedWatch Tool", the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a probability as high as 89%, while the expectation of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is only 11%. Looking ahead to January next year, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 64.8%, and the probability of further cutting rates by 50 basis points also reaches 27.6%. The warming expectations for easing have provided some emotional support for overall risk assets.
In terms of regulatory progress, U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins revealed in a live interview with Fox News that the Bitcoin Market Structure Bill is nearing passage, which means that the regulatory framework surrounding crypto assets will gradually become clearer, potentially paving the way for subsequent capital inflows.
In this context, the actions of institutional investors are also worth noting. A Solid Intel report shows that Tom Lee has once again increased his stake in Ethereum by approximately $150 million. Meanwhile, the Ethereum network has reached an important milestone: the 17th major upgrade, 'Fusaka', was successfully enabled on the mainnet epoch 411392. This upgrade comes just about 7 months after the previous round of Pectra and includes 9 core EIPs and 4 supporting EIPs, introducing the 'PeerDAS' technology that affects data availability and cost structure. Consensys points out that Ethereum will maintain a 'twice a year hard fork' pace in the future, with overall development efficiency significantly improving.
In the traditional financial market, single-token ETFs are expanding again. The first U.S. LINK spot ETF - GLNK has been listed on the NYSE on December 2, recording a net inflow of $37.05 million on its first day, with net assets reaching $52.64 million, indicating that mainstream funds' interest in on-chain asset classes is increasing.
Industry mergers and acquisitions are also heating up rapidly. Bloomberg cites PitchBook data showing that this year, the scale of mergers and acquisitions in the crypto industry has exceeded $8.6 billion, creating a historical high; statistics from Architect Partners reached $12.9 billion, significantly surpassing the total of the past four years. Major transactions such as Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit ($2.9 billion), Kraken's acquisition of NinjaTrader ($1.5 billion), and Ripple's acquisition of Hidden Road ($1.25 billion) highlight that large institutions are entering an expansion phase with the help of policy improvements and industry recovery.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's turnover rate rose yesterday, but it is still mainly driven by short-term investors, and there has been no significant loosening of the early chip structure.
URPD data shows that 2.51 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the $104,500-$112,000 range, while 1.341 million Bitcoins have accumulated in the $91,000-$96,000 range.
Overall, Bitcoin is still in a phase of technical recovery after a sharp decline in the short term, with short-term bullish sentiment having the conditions to continue. However, overall risk appetite has not significantly rebounded, and new demand remains limited. The market expectation for December is unlikely to reverse quickly, but rather maintain a rebound and recovery, waiting for clearer improvements on the demand side before judging whether the trend can truly restart.
