ETH Recent Trends: A Journey of Ups and Downs
TL;DR
Ethereum has experienced a rollercoaster journey over the past 30 days—sliding from a high of $3,427 in early November to a low of $2,764 on November 22 (-19%), followed by a strong rebound of 15.4% supported by the Fusaka upgrade and institutional buying, currently seeking a balance around $3,153. On-chain data shows that 500,000 ETH has been withdrawn from exchanges (-3%), suggesting that whales are quietly accumulating, while a daily net inflow of $140 million in ETFs is building momentum for the future.
Core Trend Analysis
Price Action: A Reversal Drama of Initial Suppression Followed by Rise
Ethereum has experienced an emotional rollercoaster over the past month. At the beginning of November, it stood confidently at $3,427, but mid-month it faced a wave of intense selling pressure, crashing to $2,764 on November 22—the lowest point of the year—like climbing halfway up a mountain only to suddenly step into thin air, leaving many holders alarmed.
But the story is not over. Just when everyone doubted whether ETH would continue to sink, it began to show resilience: climbing from the low of November 22 all the way back to $3,195 on December 4, rebounding 15.4% in just 12 days. This "sharp drop and quick rebound" rhythm resembles a warrior who, after being injured, lies low and gathers strength.
The current price hovers around $3,153, and the technical perspective shows it is at a critical crossroads:
The support level of $3,050 acts like a safety net, and is also the "biggest pain point" in the options market—breaking below here will trigger more stop losses.
Resistance at $3,200-$3,236 is its ceiling, and breaking through requires stronger buying pressure.
From a time frame perspective, the 1-hour and 4-hour charts show that it is consolidating and gaining strength, while the daily chart maintains an ascending channel from the low point but has not yet broken through the psychological barrier of the 50-day moving average ($3,407).
Technical indicators: bulls and bears are in a stalemate, but lean towards optimism.
Technical indicators act like ETH's emotional thermometer; the current reading shows it is moving from "anxiety" to "stability":
RSI indicator: 4-hour chart at 61.41 (close to overbought but not overheated), daily line at 50.55 (neutral), indicating that it is neither crazy nor desperate, but in a rational warming phase.
MACD: the daily histogram at +57.08 indicates continued upward momentum, although there was a slight pullback on the 1-hour chart (-6.53), this does not affect the overall trend.
Bollinger Bands: the daily line is expanding, and the price is approaching the upper band, suggesting an increase in volatility—directional breakthroughs may come next.
In terms of trading volume, the OBV indicator shows a negative value on the daily line (-$7.1787 million), indicating that although prices are rising, some large holders are quietly distributing, echoing the on-chain outflow data. This is a warning signal: it seems calm on the surface, but undercurrents are still surging.
On-chain signals: whales are hoarding, and exchanges are "shrinking."
If price is ETH's face, then on-chain data is its heartbeat—and the current heartbeat shows whales are actively moving:
Exchange balances continue to bleed:
In the past 30 days, the balance of ETH on exchanges decreased from 17.05 million units to 16.55 million units (-3%), a reduction of 503,000 units.
On November 28, a single day outflow of 187,000 units occurred, marking an epic "great retreat."
Out of 30 days, there were net outflows for 22 days, with an average daily outflow of about 17,000 units.
This ongoing outflow can only be explained by one thing: large holders and institutions are transferring ETH from exchanges to cold wallets, either for long-term holding or earning interest through staking. History tells us that a reduction in exchange balances often signals reduced selling pressure and a bottoming price—like supermarket shelves being emptied, indicating a supply shortage.
The subtle behavior of whales:
Among the top ten holders of WETH, the Aave protocol holds 36.38% (1.014 million units, worth $3.2 billion), indicating that a large amount of ETH is locked in DeFi lending.
Trading activity remains at an average of 1.6 million transactions per day, with TPS stable at 18.5, and network usage healthy.
Gas fees are cooling down:
The average transaction fee dropped from $1.18 at the beginning of November to $0.19 (-84%), with a median of only $0.014.
A low-fee environment is conducive to ecosystem activity, but also reflects network congestion easing—it is a double-edged sword.
Derivatives market: bulls dominate, but cautious sentiment is rising.
The futures and options market acts like an emotional amplifier for ETH; currently, it shows bulls slightly ahead, but not in a frenzy.
Open Interest (OI):
A total of $38.02 billion, down 1.8% in 24 hours—indicating that leveraged players are reducing risk exposure.
Binance OI at $8.06 billion (+0.77%), Bybit at $2.47 billion (+1.03%), with funding rates all positive (0.005-0.006%), indicating that bulls are paying funding fees to bears.
Liquidation data reveals a tense atmosphere:
In 24 hours, liquidations totaled $85.75 million, with bulls liquidated for $55.94 million (65%), and bears for $29.82 million.
Below $3,038, cumulative risk exposure of $645 million in long positions, above $3,252, $1.13 billion in short positions—both bulls and bears are on high alert in this range.
Voting in the options market:
Total OI is $11.31 billion (+1.47% 24h), with the recent expiration contracts' biggest pain point at $3,050, and those expiring on December 26 at $3,200.
This means that short-term prices may be "pinned" around $3,050, but the medium-term target points to $3,200—the market is setting steps for itself.
Catalysts and narrative: The Fusaka upgrade ignites hope.
The Fusaka upgrade (December 3) is the biggest plot twist for ETH recently. This upgrade is like installing a turbocharger on Ethereum.
PeerDAS technology: achieving 8 times data throughput, further reducing Layer 2 costs while increasing ETH burn—using Vitalik's words, "nodes only need to verify a tiny portion of data to reach consensus, and are resistant to 51% attacks."
Gas cap raised to 60 million: more transactions fit into a single block, easing congestion.
L2 feeding back to the mainnet: the upgrade introduces minimum blob fees, allowing L2 activities to directly burn ETH, creating a deflationary flywheel—"the more prosperous L2 is, the scarcer ETH becomes."
Community sentiment is therefore surging, KOLs are generally optimistic: "Pectra's minor update pushed it up by 50%, Fusaka will be more explosive" (Crypto Rover); "ETH/BTC breaking the 3-month downtrend is favorable for altcoins" (Max Crypto).
Institutional entry accelerates:
BlackRock ETHA saw a daily net inflow of $68.27 million, with cumulative net assets of $11.2 billion.
Overall, the average daily inflow of ETFs is $140 million; although Grayscale ETHE has historically accumulated an outflow of $4.93 billion, new funds dominate.
Charles Schwab announced that it will offer BTC and ETH trading in early 2026, symbolizing the formal embrace of Ethereum by traditional finance.
DeFi ecosystem: TVL is under pressure, but the foundation is solid.
Ethereum's DeFi kingdom has experienced a slight retreat during this period:
TVL fell from $74.59 billion to $69.83 billion (-6.4%), hitting a low of $65.07 billion (November 23).
This is synchronized with the price decline, but the protocol layer holdings remain stable (the proportion of WETH in leading protocols like Aave has not changed), indicating that core users are not panic selling.
Community sentiment: optimism dominates, but hidden concerns remain.
Discussions on Twitter/X show a 70% optimistic and 30% cautious divide:
Bullish arguments:
The deflationary expectations brought by Fusaka: "L2 growth → ETH burning increases → supply tightens" (Bull Theory).
ETH/BTC technical breakout is seen as a signal for the altcoin season to start.
Institutions continue to buy, and the price has completed its bottom formation.
Cautious faction concerns:
In November, ETFs experienced net outflows (such as $219 million from November 4), in contrast to inflows into SOL.
The net buying speed by institutions decreased by 80%, with daily sales exceeding 5,500 units (Edward analysis).
The cost of holding in the $3,100-$3,200 range is concentrated, which may form a selling pressure zone.
Conclusion.
Ethereum is currently in a critical phase of both recovery and accumulation. It has just climbed out of the deep drop in November, standing firm around $3,150, relying on the technical dividends of the Fusaka upgrade, the influx of institutional ETF funds, and the on-chain accumulation by whales.
In the short term (1-2 weeks): whether it can break through $3,200 is key—if it breaks through, it opens up the space to $3,400; if it falls below $3,050, it may retest $3,000 or even lower. The battle between bulls and bears is intense, with the largest pain points and liquidation risks in options pointing to this range.
In the medium term (1-3 months): the effects of the Fusaka upgrade will gradually manifest; increased L2 activity and accelerated ETH burning may create a positive feedback loop. Continuous inflow of institutional funds (led by BlackRock) provides structural support, and the entry of traditional giants like Charles Schwab will expand the user base. If exchange balances continue to dwindle and DeFi TVL stabilizes and rebounds, ETH is expected to challenge the previous high of $4,000.
Risk warning: need to be cautious of accelerated institutional selling (which has slowed down by 80% in November), excessive crowding of long positions in derivatives leading to a chain reaction of liquidations, and transmission of macro market volatility.
Overall, Ethereum resembles a wounded warrior in recovery—its injuries are not fatal, recovery signs are clear, but whether it can return to its peak will require time and more catalysts for validation. For investors, this is a cautiously optimistic window: there is room to position at lower levels, but one must be prepared for psychological fluctuations in this range.
