Hello everyone, I am your cryptocurrency blogger Bai Yue! The current price of BTC is $92,270. I just reviewed the latest 1-hour candlestick chart and the JPMorgan report, and found that the market is at a critical juncture. Today, I will use plain language combined with news and technical analysis to break down the market for you and share my views and operational suggestions.
First, let's look at the news: What signals did the JPMorgan report release?
Early this morning, JPMorgan released a report stating that Bitcoin's hash rate and mining difficulty are declining, mainly because China has reiterated its mining ban, coupled with high electricity prices and low coin prices, forcing some high-cost miners out of the market. This sounds bearish, right? But the report also mentioned that the production cost of Bitcoin has been adjusted down to around $90,000, which means what?
90,000 USD has now become a strong support! Although the selling pressure from miners has a short-term impact, if the price approaches the cost line, it may attract capital to enter. Additionally, the report emphasizes that large players like MicroStrategy have not sold, indicating that institutional confidence remains. Therefore, there is no need to fear the news; short-term fluctuations are normal, and in the long term, the support from costs is quite strong.
Let's take another look at the technical indicators: What do the 4-hour candlesticks reveal?
BTC is currently hovering around 92,373 USD, up 0.37%, but there are "high resistance levels" and "rebound pressures" above, such as the 96,000 USD level, indicating that an upward push requires accompanying volume. The secondary indicators show a "death cross trend" and "insufficient volume," suggesting a possible short-term pullback or fluctuation; this is not a bad thing, as a little cleansing is healthier! Overall, the price is still above the zero axis, indicating that the trend is not bad. My experience is that during such times, it often indicates a buildup of strength; as long as it does not break key support, a rebound could come at any moment.
My view: Today's market continues to look bullish, but be cautious!
Combining news and technical analysis, I believe today's market is very likely to continue being bullish for three reasons: First, the production cost is supported at 90,000 USD, limiting the downside; Second, although there is a death cross in the technical indicators, the price remains above 92,000, showing that bulls have not given up; Third, the market's bearish sentiment has already been partially digested, and once the volume catches up, it is easy to break through resistance. However, do not blindly chase highs, as the volume is insufficient, and it may pull back before moving up.
Retail investors, maintain your mindset and don't be scared by short-term fluctuations!
Operational advice: Doing this has a high probability of making money!
It is recommended to buy in batches when the price retraces to around 91,000-92,000 USD, with a stop loss set below 90,000 USD. The target is the upper resistance of 96,000 USD; if it breaks through, you can hold for higher. If you already have a position, hold it well without making rash moves, and set a good stop loss. Remember, do not go all in at once; come in batches and control the risk.
What should retail investors do?
Retail investors are most prone to panic, but today listen to me: Don't be afraid! There is no reason for panic in the market; both the news and technical indicators are within a controllable range. Accomplish three points: First, do not chase highs and cut losses; wait for retracement opportunities; Second, do not have too heavy a position, leave some cash for backup; Third, pay attention to key points, such as the 90,000 support and 96,000 resistance. Investing is a long-distance race; being rational is the way to make money.
Retail investors should "patiently wait for opportunities, act decisively and steadily." Follow Bai Yue to get daily real-time strategies and cutting-loss guidelines! If you don't know how to time the market, you can follow Bai Yue, who will provide real-time analysis in the community and give the best entry points.
