#InterestRateDecision
🔴 Is the market really pricing in the upcoming interest rate cut?
After Kevin Hassett's statement—the leading candidate for the Federal Reserve chair—who hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut next week, the markets shook because:
✔️ The probability of the cut is indeed 90%
✔️ Investors are treating it as a nearly certain event
But…
Even though the markets have significantly priced in the cut already, there are:
🔸 What has not been fully priced in:
1. The Fed's tone after the cut
Will it talk about more cuts? Or just one cut?
Here lies the surprise…
2. The pace of future cuts
Markets are betting on more than one cut in the first quarter of 2026 — and this is not guaranteed.
3. The dollar's reaction
If the Fed's statement is more hawkish than expected, we may see a surprising reversal.
🔸 In summary:
Yes — the market has significantly priced in the cut itself.
But it has not yet priced in the future interest rate path…
And this could make next week fiery 🔥 with a movement greater than expected.
