Don’t just focus on the price of SOL at $138 and think you can 'lie flat'! The market has reached this crossroads, and the knife-edge battle of longs and shorts is all hidden in these two candlesticks and a piece of news. I am Bai Yue, and today I’ll share some insights, telling you why I feel a chill down my back, and why 'smart money' may already be acting quietly.
News: The 'reverse operation' of the big boss is a dangerous signal
Take another look at this explosive news: 'Calmly Opening Orders King' is increasing positions in BTC, ZEC, particularly shorting SOL!
This information is overwhelming:
First, his average short position in SOL is around $140, which is about the same as the current price, and he is currently in a floating loss. But he is still holding and even increasing his position, which indicates that he is extremely bearish on the future market, not caring about short-term floating losses, betting on a big drop.
Secondly, this big player made $30 million from $3 million in the past two months. Although there was almost a complete retracement in November, they're back again with a '15-game winning streak.' Such people's operations are definitely not made on a whim; they must have seen 'risks' or 'trends' that we haven't. When most retail investors feel the market can't drop any further, top players are betting on declines with short positions. This itself is a 'contrarian indicator' you must pay attention to.
Technical aspect: $138 is 'false comfort'; signals of weak upward momentum have emerged.
Take a look at this 4-hour chart. Don't you think it's quite stable, jumping back and forth around $138? Wrong! This is called 'weak upward momentum.'
First, the $147 position is like an iron gate; SOL has charged at it several times but hasn't broken through, indicating significant selling pressure here.
Secondly, the MACD has formed a 'death cross' above the 0 axis, a classic signal of declining upward momentum. The RSI is at 51.32, seemingly neutral, but combined with the inability to push prices higher, it resembles 'weak balance.' The $155 level above is stronger resistance, while the $130 level below is the key support floor. At this position, if it can't move up, the next test will be whether the support below is firm.
My view:
Combining technical and news analysis, my feeling is that the market is brewing a major directional choice, with the probability of downward movement increasing.
A prolonged inability to break through technically has drained the bulls' energy. On a macro level, the resulting uncertainty makes large funds lean towards caution. The behavior of that 'king of orders' resembles someone sensing the 'approaching storm.' Currently, SOL is like a 'sandwich' squeezed between the $147 resistance and $130 support, but this balance is very fragile. Once negative news triggers a reaction, or if the market turns downward, it could quickly seek support at $130 or even lower.
Don't let a crash scare you! Follow Bai Yue, who breaks down the main players' tactics daily, teaching you contrarian operations step by step. When others are cutting losses, you buy the dip; when others are chasing highs, you retreat! Join the fan team now to enjoy Bai Yue's survival guide during crashes, transforming you from a retail investor to a seasoned trader in the crypto market!
