These are the upcoming events in the world of cryptocurrencies that may significantly impact the market:
1. Federal Reserve interest rate decision (December 10, 2025)
Overview: The market expects an 87.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. A shift to a more accommodative policy could reactivate demand for cryptocurrencies by improving liquidity, but sticking to a tightening policy could lead to the liquidation of positions (the value of open contracts on BTC is $823 billion, an increase of 4.66% in perpetual contracts). (Bitget)
What this means: Lower interest rates usually support risk assets like cryptocurrencies, but crowded long positions (Bitcoin contracts worth $70 million liquidated within 24 hours) may increase market volatility.
2. MSCI ruling on digital assets (January 15, 2026)
Overview: MSCI may reclassify companies like MicroStrategy (MSTR) as "investment funds" if their holdings of cryptocurrencies exceed 50% of their assets, potentially leading to forced sell-off flows between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion. (CoinDesk)
What this means: Digital asset funds have been major buyers of Bitcoin; their exclusion could weaken structural demand and lead to a sell-off in the first quarter of 2026.
3. Regulation of cryptocurrencies in Brazil (February 2, 2026)
Overview: The law requires capital ranging from $2 million to $37 million for companies operating in cryptocurrencies, mandates local entities for foreign companies, and sets a transaction cap at $100,000. (Yahoo Finance)
What this means: While regulation provides legitimacy to the market, high capital requirements may concentrate the market among major players and limit the entry of new competitors.
4. SEC deadline for ETFs (March 27, 2026)
Overview: The SEC must make a decision on 91 ETF applications, qualifying 12 alternative cryptocurrencies (such as SOL and XRP) for expedited approval under the new standards. (The Defiant)
What this means: Approvals may increase liquidity in alternative cryptocurrencies, but delays could prolong the trend of outflows from Bitcoin funds ($3.79 billion out in November).
5. The threat of quantum computing (March 8, 2028)
Overview: "Quantum Day" is expected to pose a risk to Bitcoin wallets using ECDSA encryption, including a Satoshi stash worth $110 billion, unless quantum-resistant updates accelerate. (U.Today)
What this means: Although this threat is distant, increasing awareness may pressure developers to prioritize quantum-resistant solutions, which may affect investor confidence in legacy networks.
Conclusion
The Federal Reserve's decision on December 10 is the immediate driver of market volatility, as traders monitor interest rate cuts and future guidance. However, the MSCI ruling poses a structural risk to institutional demand for Bitcoin. It is important to follow the Fed's statements and movements in digital asset fund stocks (such as the relationship between MSTR and BTC) for early signals. The scenario is positive if quantitative easing coincides with liquidity sensitivity in cryptocurrencies, but regulatory risks remain.
