Bloomberg: Bitcoin will lead the next recession
Mike McGlone, chief commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has opined that Bitcoin could be the main indicator of the next recession.
He argues that some signals from asset prices (gold at historical highs, the drop in Treasury bond yields, the spike in stock volatility) appear to be early warning signs historically associated with major economic reset events.
Bitcoin is a high beta risk asset whose price reacts quickly to changes in global risk sentiment. If the flagship cryptocurrency starts to drop sharply, it could be an early market signal that leverage is unwinding.
McGlone has maintained a bearish outlook on Bitcoin for the past two months. He argues that the sharp decline of Bitcoin from its 2025 highs indicates the beginning of post-inflationary deflationary pressures.
This is a pattern similar to what was observed in 2007, when the Federal Reserve began to ease rates, only for the markets to eventually crash. McGlone often points out Bitcoin's tendency to revert to the mean.
He has predicted that the cryptocurrency could return to the $50,000 level, and possibly crash further down to $10,000 in a more severe scenario. He has been consistently optimistic about gold.
The yellow metal has managed to shine in 2025, while Bitcoin, crude oil, and other risk assets have faltered.
McGlone argues that the maturation of the cryptocurrency and ETF inflows mark a late bullish peak, similar to the excesses of the dot-com era. He believes that the S&P 500 could record its third down year since 2008.
The analyst has forecast possible trajectories towards 5000 points for the index, along with $50,000 for Bitcoin in 2026.
