Many still look at Bitcoin and the entire market through one lens:
"Every 4 years — halving, bull run, then winter. Everything is predictable."
The problem is that the market has long ceased to operate according to this simple scheme. Not only the price changes — the very mechanics of the forces that drive crypto change.
Let's figure it out without names, without 'gurus' and without someone else's forecasts. Only logic and flows.
## 🧩 1. We are still at an early stage, despite 10+ years of history
Crypto seems 'overheated' and 'oversaturated' from the outside. But if you look deeper:
- the share of people for whom blockchain is part of real financial flows is still minimal;
- institutional players are only forming the first systematic strategies;
- tokenization of real assets (stocks, bonds, real estate) — at the very beginning;
- regulators are just learning to work with this market.
That is, the base for long-term growth is not truly accelerated yet.
The 4-year cycle was formed under completely different conditions — when the market was a toy for enthusiasts and speculators. Now it is starting to be viewed as infrastructure.
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## ⚙️ 2. Previously, cycles were built around halving. Now — around liquidity and demand
The classic picture:
1. Halving →
2. BTC supply is decreasing →
3. A deficit is beginning →
4. Price is rising →
5. Euphoria →
6. Collapse →
7. Crypto winter.
This scheme worked while the main driver was mining and speculative interest.
Today, many more variables have been added to the equation:
- staking and blocking coins;
- institutional ETFs and funds;
- real use of networks (DeFi, L2, AI infrastructure);
- tokenization of traditional assets;
- new models of coins and issuance.
At some point, the number of factors simply outweighs the old model 'halving → pump → dump'.
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## 🧲 3. The behavior of large buyers speaks louder than any words
If you look not at the headlines, but at the flows, it becomes clear:
- periods of slowing purchases often coincide with searching for a bottom;
- the transition to aggressive accumulation does not happen at the highs, but at key levels;
- large players do not try to 'catch the peak', their goal is to take a position before the market moves far away.
The meaning is simple:
> when strong hands quietly shift towards accumulation, the market is already changing phase, even if the crowd does not feel it yet.
This is not a 'forecast', this is reading the traces of liquidity.
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## 📉 4. Why the 4-year cycle is cracking
Previously, Bitcoin well overlapped with several rhythms:
- halving;
- the economic cycle of the USA;
- business activity index;
- the overall phase of risk/safe assets.
Today the situation is different:
- the macro cycle has stopped fitting neatly into 4 years;
- monetary policy has become more chaotic and reactive;
- markets live in a mode of constant shocks, not smooth phases.
If the outside world no longer lives by four-year cycles, expecting a perfect 4-year cycle from BTC and the entire crypto market is just self-soothing.
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## 🧠 5. What does this mean for BTC and ETH in practical terms
The main change:
📌 the market is moving away from the 'by calendar' model,
📌 and transitions to the 'by streams' model.
Now the question is not more important:
> 'When is the next halving and when will winter begin?'
And the questions:
- is real use of networks increasing?
- is new large capital entering?
- is supply limited due to staking and long-term holding?
- is the role of blockchain in the real economy and infrastructure expanding?
BTC and ETH in this picture:
- cease to be merely speculative assets 'under the cycle';
- becoming basic layers — stores of value and settlement infrastructure.
When an asset becomes infrastructure, its dynamics depend less on the calendar and more on the speed of adoption.
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## 🧭 6. New type of cycle: not 'bullish/bearish', but a technology adoption cycle
The market is gradually shifting:
- from 'bought at the halving, sold after 18 months',
- to 'I hold a share in the infrastructure of future finance'.
This is a completely different horizon:
- what matters is not the exact peak, but the area of undervaluation;
- not an ideal exit at the high, but a growing share of assets that work for you;
- not blind faith in 4 years, but understanding how four streams flow: liquidity, new coins, outflow of coins and behavior of large players.
## 📌 Conclusion
The classic four-year cycle is not a law of nature, but a convenient model of the past decade.
The market is maturing now.
With it, cycles mature:
- stretching a ruler from old phases to new conditions is becoming less useful;
- blindly waiting for the 'necessary winter' means ignoring the real mechanics;
- thinking in terms of 'forecasts' means still living in the maze we recently exited in the cycle of articles.
Today, it is more important not to guess the date of the turn, but to see:
> where does liquidity really flow
> and how quickly the world accepts crypto not as speculation, but as infrastructure.
And those who learn to read these streams will feel the market much better than those who still pray for neat '4 years according to the textbook'.
