Good news = rise? I was slapped in the face last night!
News: PCE is a ladder, but some took the opportunity to ‘clear the field’.
PCE fell to 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%, hitting a three-month low. This essentially tells the market: inflation is cooling, and the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut rates next month. Theoretically, assets should rise, and the crypto circle did indeed respond in the short term.
But if you look at the clearing data, it's very straightforward: If ETH falls below 3000, the liquidation intensity of long positions reaches 973 million; while breaking above 3200, the liquidation of short positions is also 764 million. In other words, with the price stuck between 3000 and 3200, it’s the ‘slaughterhouse’ of the big players. Last night's surge was likely to first trick the brothers chasing longs and then turn around to smash the market for profit-taking, which is a typical ‘liquidation of longs’ play.
Technical aspect: It looks strong, but actually hides dangers.
The MACD white and yellow lines are dead crossing above the 0 axis, indicating that short-term momentum is weakening; the three RSI values are all in the oversold range, especially the first two at around 24, which means that short-term selling pressure hasn't completely released, but it also indicates that there is limited space to go down further.
The middle track of the Bollinger Bands is at 3108, the upper track at 3228, and the lower track at 2988. The current price is hovering close to the lower track, like a compressed spring. The key point 2970 was held yesterday; otherwise, it would have directly dropped to 2790 or even 2620. The current form is a consolidation repair, with bulls and bears repeatedly contesting at 3000. Whoever makes the first move can set the pace.
Personal opinion: Don't be fooled by appearances; there are big moves coming.
Last night's PCE was supposed to be an easy question, but it was used as bait, with sophisticated calculations behind it by funds and clearing merchants. The fact that ETH was able to stop at 2978 is not a coincidence; it's the result of the balance point between bulls and bears + the bottoming out of the clearing merchants.
Today, it's highly likely that we will continue to oscillate within the range, with both bulls and bears testing each other's bottom lines. At this time, it is most unwise to chase highs and cut losses; emotional trading is a surefire way to lose. Remember, major trends often hide in what everyone thinks is a "boring" oscillation. Once it breaks out, it represents an opportunity for a wave of quick runs.
If you're not clear about the specific points, you can focus on the lord, who provides real-time reminders in the village to friends who have followed me for 24 hours.
Retail investors should "patiently wait for opportunities, act decisively and accurately." Focus on the lord, come to the village to get daily real-time strategies + risk management guides!
