From the current trend of the big cake and the market environment, there is short-term potential bullish momentum, and the core logic can be analyzed from three dimensions: technical aspects, macro aspects, and market structure:

1. Technical aspects: rebound repair space after overselling

1. Validity of support level

The current price (89550.2) is in the core support zone of 88,000-90,000 (which is both the recent rebound starting point and the Bitcoin production cost line calculated by JPMorgan), with limited downside space, providing a basis for a technical rebound.

2. Oversold signal from indicators

In the 4-hour chart, the KDJ indicator (K=30.3, D=31.2) is approaching the oversold zone. Combined with the daily RSI recovering from a low position, it indicates that selling pressure has been partially released, and there is potential for a rebound in the short term.

3. Possibility of breaking key resistance

If there is a volume breakout above the resistance zone of 93,000-94,000 (previous concentration area + 20-day moving average resistance), the next target could be seen at the 95,000-100,000 range.

2. Macro aspects: Catalysts for liquidity easing expectations

1. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations

The market's expected probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has reached 90%, and a rate cut will bring liquidity easing + a weaker dollar, directly benefiting high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often performs strongly during the Federal Reserve's easing cycles.

2. Structural demand from institutional funds

Traditional financial institutions like Bank of America have opened channels for crypto asset allocation. Although ETF funds are volatile in the short term, long-term cumulative inflows have still reached 22 billion dollars, and the logic of institutions 'buying on dips' remains unchanged.

3. Market structure: potential push from short liquidation

Currently, there are 3 billion dollars in short positions around 96,000 dollars. If the price breaks through the resistance level upwards, it may trigger large-scale short liquidations, further pushing prices up (similar to the previous trend from 84,000 dollars rebounding to 92,000 dollars).

Risk warning

• The support at 88,000 dollars must be maintained; if it effectively breaks down, it may test 84,000-85,000 dollars;

• 'Hawkish rate cuts' by the Federal Reserve or inflation data exceeding expectations may suppress rebound momentum. #比特币VS代币化黄金 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐