Family, who understands! The crypto circle's "undying warrior" LUNC is causing a stir again! Current price is $0.00003064, quietly rising 3 points in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $1.38 billion hiding secrets. Clearly, it has been flat like "lying flat" for the past week, but the community has played the coin burn to a new height, with a direct burn amount breaking 7 billion, cutting the supply by 15%! What's even more exciting is that the associated USTC skyrocketed 13% in one day, retail investors are shouting "push to $1", and whales are secretly buying. Is this really going to take off or just a feint? Today, the old expert will help you dissect the core logic; it's all valuable content without nonsense!
Let's first talk about the most explosive "deflationary nuclear weapon" burning coins! In the last week of November, 381 million LUNC and 178,000 USTC were burned, and the ecosystem's TVL started to warm up. As a result, at the beginning of December, top exchanges directly increased their positions, and 522 million LUNC instantly "evaporated"! Now the community is in an uproar, with some calling to raise the trading tax rate to 1.5%, claiming that this will accelerate deflation and boost prices; but there are also rational voices dampening the enthusiasm: "A tax rate that high will scare away users. The liquidity is already not top-tier, and introducing limits would be cutting off the path to recovery." An old hand interjects: Deflation is a good thing, but we need to balance "burning hard" and "living well." If the tax rate really goes up, it will surely stir up emotions in the short term, but in the long term, we still need to see if there is real demand to take over, and not just rely on burning coins to tell a story.
Looking again at the technical foundation, version v3.5.0 has long been online, and the restarted Market Module 2.0 effectively provides double insurance for security and liquidity. Logically, this should be a price catalyst. However, the community is now split into two factions: the bull camp is thumping their chests saying "upgrades + burning coins = a bombshell, it will definitely double by the end of the year"; while the bear camp rolls their eyes and retorts, "Stop talking about that, the centralization risk hasn’t been resolved, and liquidity can’t match mainstream coins; even if it rises, it will be fleeting." Objectively speaking, I think the upgrade does indeed fill some gaps, but let’s not over-mythologize it. There has never been a rule in the crypto circle that "upgrading technology must lead to a price increase"; it still depends on the broader environment and the attitude of funds.
There was also a little incident on the exchange side. A certain exchange with the surname O previously announced a suspension of fiat trading pairs for LUNC, with withdrawals ending on December 22. Many retail investors panicked. But there’s actually no need to be anxious. The trading depth on the top derivatives platform has long exceeded 200 million dollars, and the core exchanges that truly affect prices are still providing normal services. This delisting feels more like a "liquidity selection," cleaning out inactive trading pairs, which is actually beneficial for concentrating quality funds.
The most uncertain variable has arrived: Do Kwon's sentencing hearing is just 6 days away! The maximum sentence could be 25 years, and the plea agreement cap is currently 12 years, and this matter directly affects LUNC's nerves. The community has gone crazy, with some betting that "once the verdict is announced, it will be a complete downside release, potentially skyrocketing by 40%", while others fear that "increased regulatory pressure could trigger a liquidation rebound." I must remind everyone: this is a typical "black swan event", and both rises and falls are possible, so don’t heavily bet on one side! The historical low of 0.00008 dollars is indeed quite low, but the price has already rebounded significantly. Be sure to set stop losses when chasing highs and bottom fishing; don’t treat your hard-earned money as a gamble.
When it comes to price predictions, institutions are ridiculously divided: CoinPedia predicts a rise to 0.000675 dollars by the end of the year, which is a whopping 2000% increase—more ambitious than a whale's buying spree; Gate.io is much more conservative, only giving a neutral prediction of 0.00003128 dollars, equivalent to a 2% increase, which is almost like no increase at all. Personally, I lean more towards a middle ground: a 2000% target is too aggressive, likely just a pipe dream, but there are bullish divergence signals on the technical side, and a rebound of 180% to 0.000162 dollars is still possible. Looking long-term to 2030, aiming for 0.00005056 dollars with a 63% return rate, just relying on burning coins won't be enough; we need to see if the ecosystem can create practical scenarios. We can't keep relying on "burning" as a gimmick.
The community sentiment is now neutral to bullish, with 45% bullish, 11% bearish, and the rest are watching. Some have already liquidated and stopped losses, while some die-hard HODLers shout, "This is the bottom signal, just add positions and go for it." To be honest, LUNC is like a "little cockroach" in the crypto circle; it can't be killed and always surprises us. However, high volatility also means high risk. It’s okay to play with a small position, but don’t put all your savings in.
Lastly, I want to say from the heart: whether LUNC can take off next depends on whether these three elements—"verdict + burning coins + upgrades"—can be realized. If the verdict doesn't exceed expectations, and the coin burning can continue to increase, the short-term rebound probability is indeed high; but liquidity risks always exist, so don’t chase high positions.
Let's wait for the follow-up together, following the old hand to avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities. Remember, in the crypto circle, it’s all about information asymmetry and mindset. Follow me, and I’ll help you grasp the core logic in real time, and I won’t let any potential opportunity slip by!
