Who understands, family! Just as mainstream cryptocurrencies have been falling for three consecutive days, the group is filled with wails of 'to cut or not to cut'. Suddenly, Trump jumps out and slams the table: 'What are you panicking about? Opportunities are hidden in your panic!' This wave of impassioned words directly stirred the sluggish market into a boiling pot of spicy hot pot. Some curse it as 'drawing a pie in the sky', while others secretly added to their positions. As someone who has been tracking the market for five years, I need to peel back the true signals behind this.
First, let's sort out the current big picture: as soon as the news of the U.S. government shutdown landed, the market hit the brakes hard, and mainstream coins collectively corrected, dragging U.S. stocks down with them. At this point, Trump stands up and says 'The stock market will hit new highs', seemingly boosting the U.S. stock market, but in fact, he's also pulling the crypto circle along, after all, the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks is comparable to the clinginess between a couple.
His statement that "some people deliberately exaggerate incidents to create panic" sounds like passing the buck, but it hits on an old trick in the market. As an analyst who has long dealt with institutional games, I know the ins and outs of this: every time there’s a "small ripple" in policy or news, there will always be funds seizing the opportunity to dump and create panic, forcing those retail investors who can't hold on to cut their losses and leave, while they buy back at lower prices. Just like this time the government shutdown, it’s essentially a short-term administrative issue, with no real connection to the technical logic or application scenarios of cryptocurrencies. This kind of "irrational drop" is often an opportunity that’s presented to you.
Here, I must emphasize a key point for newcomers: when judging the market, don’t just look at "who is shouting"; you need to see if "the logic behind the shout is sound." Where does Trump's confidence come from? Firstly, it’s because his economic team has always been open to digital assets. Secondly, the compliance process in the current crypto market has been advancing, and the trend of institutional funds entering hasn’t stopped. Just two weeks ago, there was an announcement of Greylock increasing its holdings. These "smart money" won't flee just because of short-term news.
Let me share a practical judgment method, which is the experience I've gained over the years: if the trading volume doesn’t spike during a decline, it indicates that it’s not a real crash; it’s likely an "emotional kill". Conversely, if there’s a spike in volume during a crash, that’s when you need to be cautious. During this correction, the trading volume of mainstream coins actually shrank by 20% compared to last week, which highlights the issue: it’s the retail investors who are panicking, while the institutions are sitting by with teacups watching the show.
Some may argue: "What if it keeps falling endlessly?" My suggestion is to take this in two steps: for those with spare cash, don’t go all in; divide your funds into three parts, and when the price retraces to key support levels, buy one part. Even if it falls further, you will still have some bullets left. For those holding all chips, first check if the assets you have are mainstream coins with real application scenarios. If it’s one of those coins that can't even write a clear white paper, don’t wait for Trump to speak; you should run when it’s time to run.
Actually, this wave of market is very similar to the correction after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last year. At that time, some also shouted, "The bear market is here," but two months later, mainstream coins rebounded directly by 50%. The market is always cycling between "fear and greed," and those who can make money are always the ones who can calmly peel back the surface to see the essence when others are panicking and can’t eat.
