In December 2025, there are two things to keep a close eye on in the financial market: the US dollar interest rate cut and the Japanese yen interest rate hike. Today, the focus is on the yen—this is definitely not good news.
In the past 20 years, the three interest rate hikes of the yen have been accompanied by systemic risks:
• 2000: After the interest rate hike, the internet bubble burst;
• 2007–2008: The interest rate hike combined with the subprime mortgage crisis led to a global crash;
• July 2024: Yen interest rate hike, Nasdaq plunged 15%.
Now Japan is once again betting on an interest rate hike, and the long-term 0% interest rate of the yen has accumulated 5–10 trillion USD in carry trade leverage. Once the interest rate is raised, funds will quickly flow back, triggering a global "bank run" withdrawal, and the AI sector may become the biggest bubble risk point in this round.
But don't be blindly fearful—if the market is already in a correction cycle, the yen interest rate hike will only accelerate the decline.
🥇Focus on short-term trading, control positions, and remember to hedge long positions; participating with light positions in major currencies is sufficient.
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