Who understands this, family! Recently, when I opened the market software, the second contract seemed to be on pause, firmly holding at 3000, not even touching 3200, and the comment section is full of wails like 'Is it really dead?' and 'Should we cut losses and run?'!
Don't worry! As an old hand at monitoring the market for 5 years, I've clearly analyzed this game today: this is not an ordinary fluctuation; the main force is playing a 'limit psychological warfare', hiding behind it is a 'chip explosion point' worth 1.73 billion. Once triggered, it won't be a 50-point fluctuation, but a 500-point trend market!
Let me pour some cold water: the sideways movement of the second contract isn't a lack of strength; it's the main force playing 'cat and mouse'!
Do you think the second coin can't rise or fall? Wrong! This is a typical 'chip symmetry trap'!
Above 3200: all are shorts waiting to 'short and pick the bottom,' densely packed with chips; below 3000: all are longs holding onto 'longs for profit,' stubbornly refusing to let go; in the middle at 3100: the main force's 'torture hell'!
This operation by the main force is incredible; if you want to rush, they immediately suppress orders; if you want to run, they secretly support the bottom. They let you be caught in the dilemma of 'should I act or not,' making you grip your chips tighter and tighter, and in the end, you panic and hand them over! It’s like a cat playing with a mouse, first exhausting your patience before going in for the kill, it’s truly sinister!
Two paths: one takes off, one eats noodles, but only one can trigger 'the rampage mode'!
Now the market has only two outcomes. I will explain the consequences clearly, and you can judge for yourselves:
① Break through 3200: directly trigger 'short sellers' liquidation frenzy'!
If it can stabilize at 3200, those shorting will have to passively hand over 764 million chips—this is no small amount! What will happen then? The shorts will panic and buy back frantically to close their positions, and the buying orders will snowball, increasing in size, leading to an explosion in trading volume, transforming sideways movement into a trend. The second coin will surge upward due to inertia; this is a typical 'takeoff ignition point'! The key is, the second coin is now less than 100 points away from this point, equivalent to 'a final push,' just waiting for a signal!
② Fall below 3000: a 'bulls' loss-cutting drama' unfolds!
If it falls below 3000, those long-position brothers will have to hand over 973 million chips, a scale even larger than shorting! The consequence is: long positions will be passively closed, selling pressure will hit directly, small coins will suffer as well, and the second coin may have to go back to 2800 to 'find support.' This is the main force's 'brutal absorption,' washing out the unstable longs, picking up cheap chips at a low price—it's truly ruthless!
My core judgment: the main force is 90% likely to choose 'to go up'!
Having watched the market for so long, I have never relied on guessing but on observing 'the main force's maximization of benefits'! Three key signals, I will reveal them all to you today:
Retail investor sentiment has already collapsed: the panic index has fallen to 23, and many brothers have already started to 'cut losses and run.' The bullish mentality is thinner than paper—this is what the main force loves, 'unstable chips.' With a slight pull, they can make them chase back to buy; the macro environment doesn’t support a big drop: the core PCE has fallen to 2.8%, and the probability of a rate cut next week has soared, the overall environment is warming! If the main force were to crash the market now, it would be like 'giving away money against the trend.' Only a fool would do that; there’s too much money on-chain: USDC has increased by 10 billion in just over a month, liquidity is almost overflowing! They can’t crash the market deep, and it would be easy for others to pick up the bottom. The main force wouldn’t make such a losing business; they’d rather push it up, letting outside funds rush in and earn more!
Final reminder: the ones who should be most anxious now are not the bulls or bears, but the 'fence-sitters'!
Family, the market is never about looking at K lines; it's about 'the game of human hearts'! The worst right now are not the short or long positions, but those who:
The shorts at 3100 are hoping for a plunge, while the longs at 3150 are waiting for acceleration; they dare not increase their positions or set stop losses. Every day they stare at the market software, their hearts racing, growing more anxious as they wait. In the end, when the market moves, they either miss the opportunity or get stuck!
These brothers are the 'fuel pack' for the main force! The second coin is now 'an arrow on the string.' If we can endure the 3000-3200 range, the path ahead will be smooth; if not, we can only be the leeks!
