For many years, the crypto market was described by a simple formula:
> 'Every 4 years - halving, growth, peak, decline'.
But today this scheme is increasingly failing.
And the reason is not the 'unpredictable market', but that **the very nature of cycles has changed**.
We are transitioning from *event cycles* to *flow cycles*.
And this completely changes the logic of price movement.
## 🔁 1. The previous 4-year cycle was statistics, not a law of the market
Earlier, everything really fit into neat phases:
- halving → shortage → growth,
- overheating → fixation → fall.
But it is important to understand: this cycle worked because **the market was small**.
It was managed by retail, and the capital structure was primitive.
Today, crypto is part of the global economy.
And repeating old cycles becomes as much an illusion as trying to predict oil movement by old textbooks.
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## 🌍 2. Cycles are disappearing not only in crypto — this is a global trend
In recent years, classic cycles have collapsed:
- business cycles,
- commodity cycles,
- cycles of growth and recession,
- even the models of the stock markets.
Why?
The world has become too fast.
Too much capital, technology, and new players for the economy to proceed in even four-year steps.
If **the entire financial world has stopped living by cycles**,
crypto cannot remain the same.
## 🧨 3. Halving has ceased to be the main trigger — simply because the market has grown
Halving is important, yes.
But it no longer determines price movement.
Why?
Because forces have emerged in the market that counteract its influence:
- Fed rates,
- global dollar liquidity,
- institutional ETFs,
- corporate blockchain solutions,
- influx of capital from the real sector.
Earlier, halving could “shake” the market.
Today, there is more money in the market than in the first 8–10 years of Bitcoin's entire history combined.
Halving is the background.
**The main thing is the structure of flows.**
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## 💧 4. A new cycle has emerged in crypto — the liquidity cycle
Its essence is simple:
> The price rises when **more money comes in than goes out**.
> The price falls when **more comes out than comes in**.
This is basic math that works even where predictions do not work.
And it is based on four flows:
1) Influx of liquidity
2) Outflow of liquidity
3) Influx of new coins
4) Outflow of coins
All other explanations are derivatives.
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## 🧠 5. Crypto is no longer a separate market — it has become infrastructure
When an asset is used by millions of people and participates in real economic processes,
its movement is no longer determined by the “cycle,” but by **the scale of adoption**.
That is why now:
- L2 networks are growing,
- the number of locked assets is growing,
- corporate use of blockchain is growing,
- the role of crypto in global capital flows is increasing.
This is not a market cycle.
This is **the technological cycle of adoption**.
It is longer, more powerful, and much less predictable.
## 📌 Conclusion
The crypto market has entered a new phase, where:
- halving is an auxiliary factor,
- cycles of the past no longer repeat,
- the market has become part of the global economy,
- price movement is determined by capital flows, not by the calendar,
- the one who understands the mechanics of liquidity wins,
- and not one who waits for the “repetition of 2021.”
We are entering an era where the market does not live in time —
in **streams**.
