💥 The “Infinite Money Loop” of Bitcoin Treasury Companies Has Ended

For years, Bitcoin treasury companies thrived on a simple playbook:

Trade at a premium to NAV → issue shares at high prices → buy BTC at lower effective cost → boost BTC per share → repeat.

The key condition? A reliable NAV premium. That’s now gone.

Why the Premium Collapsed:

BTC momentum weakened: fell below the 0.75 quantile in mid-November → 25% of circulating supply in unrealized losses (Glassnode).

DAT sector drawdowns:

-27% past 30 days

-41% past 3 months (Artemis data)

DAT stocks now trade near or below NAV, making new share issuance value-destructive.

Major Challenges:

1️⃣ High Cost Bases:

Many firms (e.g., Metaplanet, NAKA) bought BTC >$107k; BTC now ~$90k → deep mark-to-market losses.

Leverage amplifies downside (NAKA stock -83% in 3 months).

2️⃣ Leverage Demand Disappeared:

DAT equities used to be high-beta BTC proxies.

Institutional capital now favors spot ETFs (IBIT) → safer, lower volatility.

3️⃣ Shift to Defense:

Era of “printing shares to buy BTC” is over.

Market now rewards:

✅ Capital preservation

✅ Liquidity protection

✅ Balance sheet resilience

Example: Strategy raised $1.44B for a buffer, not stacking BTC.

4️⃣ Extreme Concentration Risk:

Strategy (MSTR) holds >80% of BTC in DAT sector → sector fate tied to one company.

MSCI index decisions could impact liquidity and sector NAV permanently.

Bottom Line:

The BTC treasury trade is moving from aggressive accumulation → defensive management.

For NAV premiums to return, the market needs:

Sustained BTC strength above cost bases

Restored leverage demand

Higher liquidity

Strong governance & disciplined share issuance

Until then, the “infinite money loop” is officially closed.

#Bitcoin #CryptoStocks #DAT #BTC #CryptoAnalysis