Every time the big cake approaches the end of a bull market, someone says this time is different. But the fact is, as the big cake fell from 126000 to 90000, the 4-year cycle has once again been confirmed.
Explain what the 4-year cycle is.
The big cake mimics the mechanism of gold, artificially creating a kind of scarcity, and every 4 years, the output of the big cake will be halved.
Then everyone found that the big cake's bull market happens within a year before and after the halving, this phenomenon is called the 4-year cycle.
This is very magical because other financial assets also have bull and bear markets, but they are not as regular as the big cake.
I know some people will say that if everyone knows this rule, then the rule will become ineffective, and this statement is not wrong.
For example, in 2021 and 2023, some bloggers on the external network deduced that Bitcoin would peak in October this year. If everyone reaches a consensus, the original buying pressure will disappear, and the price will drop in advance.
Since 2019, the halving of Bitcoin has been said to bring a bull market, and this statement has already begun to spread. But the pattern has not failed, and even the number of days for bull and bear markets remains as precise as usual.
Why is this the case? Logically, everyone should know the pattern, so the pattern should fail.
In fact, you have overlooked one point: most people are merely aware, but they do not truly believe. From my observation, those who genuinely adhere to the theory of cycles in their operations are a very small minority.
If you don't believe it, pay more attention to some bloggers, whether domestic or foreign, and look at their views from half a year ago. How many people could predict a bearish market by the end of the year?
Why is the 4-year cycle still effective? Because most people do not believe in historical patterns, which actually encourages the rule to continue to be effective. I think this phenomenon is more magical than the 4-year cycle itself.
Since its inception, Bitcoin has strictly followed a 4-year cycle with very little deviation. However, even though the 4-year cycle theory is continually validated, the number of non-believers has actually increased.
In 2021, many people said the 4-year cycle was going to be broken. By 2025, even more people think this way.
So why will the 4-year cycle continue to be effective? From the perspective of behavioral finance, the reason is very simple: because most people do not really believe and do not conduct transactions according to the cycle theory.
It is precisely because most people believe the cycle will disappear that it actually indicates the cycle will still exist.
The current bull market in the cryptocurrency circle has ended, liquidate your Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price at the time of writing: 89600 USD
