JPMorgan maintaining a target price of US$ 170,000 for Bitcoin despite the recent drop is real, and has quite a few implications.
📄 JPMorgan — its bet of US$ 170,000 for Bitcoin
JPMorgan reaffirmed its long-term valuation: according to its analysts, Bitcoin could reach around US$ 170,000 in the next 6 to 12 months.
This target price is based on a 'volatility-adjusted' model that compares Bitcoin to a traditional safe-haven asset like gold. By reducing the relative volatility of BTC versus gold, the bank estimates that the 'fair' or 'theoretical' value of BTC rises significantly.
Additionally, JPMorgan sees the so-called 'production cost' of Bitcoin as a structural support point — that is, what it costs to mine it. With the recent adjustments in hashrate and difficulty, they estimate that cost at ~US$ 90,000–94,000, which would serve as a support floor if the price drops.
Despite the correction from recent highs, analysts interpret the drop as a 'corrective phase' — not as the beginning of a structural collapse. They maintain that the fundamentals of the ecosystem (mining, institutional adoption, risk/benefit comparison with other assets) remain valid.
In other words: JPMorgan argues that, barring a major external shock, Bitcoin continues to have a favorable setup to regain ground and eventually approach that target of US$ 170,000.
✅ Why they maintain that stance — the arguments behind the target
Some of the points JPMorgan uses to justify its projection:
Comparison with gold: when adjusting for risk/volatility, they consider that Bitcoin has a 'theoretical' value that could grow substantially if investors see it as a refuge similar to gold.
Mining costs as structural support: with the decline in global hashrate and the exit of high-cost miners, the 'cost floor' to produce new BTC drops to ~US$ 90–94 K, which acts as a technical barrier against deep drops.
Exit of leverage / deleveraging completed: according to their analysis, the cleanup of highly leveraged positions (futures, derivatives) has already occurred — which could reduce selling pressure, stabilize the market, and allow for rebounds.
Continuous institutional interest: there are signs that institutional capital continues to be interested in Bitcoin (companies with reserves, ETFs, funds, etc.), which could bring sustained demand to the market.
These factors, combined, provide the basis for their optimistic scenario: the market would not be entering a prolonged bearish cycle, but correcting, with significant recovery potential if there are no new shocks.
⚠️ What could hinder that scenario — risks that do not disappear
But JPMorgan also points out some 'critical points' that could alter that path:
If mining production continues to be too costly (due to energy, regulation, difficulty), that could exert downward pressure on the minimum price.
If major players (companies, miners, funds) decide to sell — due to debt, obligations, rebalancing — that could generate significant supply during periods of low demand.
External volatility: macroeconomic movements (interest rates, inflation, global crises), regulatory decisions, sources of liquidity, etc., can strongly affect crypto, even if internal fundamentals are solid.
Market sentiment and institutional adoption: if the narrative changes — for example, due to macro issues or regulatory scandals — perceived risk may restart capital outflows, affecting price.
In that sense, although the target exists, there is no guarantee: it depends on external and internal conditions, global circumstances, and future real demand.
🎯 What it would imply — scenarios if it is fulfilled
If Bitcoin manages to approach that target of US$ 170,000, it could happen:
A strong rebound in the crypto market, attracting more institutional and retail capital.
Improvement in general sentiment towards crypto assets, which could benefit altcoins, ETFs, tokenized financial products, etc.
More legitimacy for Bitcoin as a 'digital store of value' → it may consolidate its role as a safe-haven asset, similar to gold.
Significant revaluations for companies with Bitcoin reserves, miners, and funds/investors who maintained positions during the decline.
