It is currently a consolidation after a decline, the main force seems to be preparing for 'another stab at the bulls', with a downward bias → then a rebound.
Core Idea: Do not short, do not mess around in the range of 89k, wait for the bottom pin to eat the meat, and look for shorts again after the rebound above.
Route A (Main Line, ≈55%): First down then up
Route A (Main Line, ≈55%): First down then up
First drop to 88.x, even stepping down to 86k or even lower to liquidate the bulls → then rebound to sweep the 90k shorts.
Switching / Failure:
If the price does not fall below 89,200, but instead stands back above 89,800, and the 1H continuously closes above the VWAP, while CVD/OBV is clearly rising, it indicates insufficient willingness to drop → shift from A to B or C.
Route B (secondary line, ≈30%): sideways fluctuation around 89k → weak rebound to 90.5–91
The current price will grind around for a while, exchanging time for space, and then rise to around 90.5–91, ending this daily bearish zone.
Switch:
If there is no significant drop at 90.5–91, but rather a strong breakout and stabilization above 91,500, then switch from B to C (short squeeze line).
Route C (danger line, ≈15%): directly short squeeze → then go to the 94k area
Risk:
If you go all in short at 89k now, being forced by the C route is the most painful scenario.
. Long order pending
(1) Light long position for the day (catch the first knife rebound)
Recommended range:
👉 88,800 – 88,300
Corresponding: 1D bullish liquidation peak + buy wall in the order book + starting point of large buy orders below.
Stop loss / invalidation point:
A 1H close below 87,800 = first knife failure, possibly heading towards the second knife at 86k.
Heavy long position for the swing (extreme pin bar golden pit)
Main force accumulation area (heavy position):
👉 84,200 – 83,800
Corresponding: 1W bullish liquidation big pit + dense area of large buy orders on Coinglass + previous low around 83,7xx.
Stop loss / structure invalidation:
A daily close below 82,500 indicates that it's not just a tail end but the start of a more significant adjustment.
Short order pending
For short positions here, I recommend a small position + being more selective, as our main line is 'down first, then up'; chasing shorts in the short term doesn't make much sense.
Light short position for the day
Recommended range:
👉 90,500 – 91,000
Corresponding: 1D bearish liquidation pool + a dense area of sell walls in the order book.
Stop loss / invalidation:
A 1H close above 91,500 indicates that it has entered a short squeeze rhythm, and shorts must execute stop loss.
Extreme defensive short (even smaller position)
Recommended range:
👉 94,000 – 94,800
Invalidation point:
Once it breaks through and stabilizes above 95,500, it indicates that the medium to long term has entered a new round of upward trend, and the entire bearish mindset should be abandoned.
The current state of BTC is: dropping from 94k, resting at 89k, and it's highly probable that the main force will push down again, washing out all the longs below 88k or even 86k, before considering harvesting shorts above 90k.
Your really high probability long positions are at: 88.8–88.3 (first knife) and 84.x (extreme pin).
Do not open short positions randomly at 89k, wait for it to rebound to above 90.5–91 before discussing.
