Bitcoin faces JP rate hike: Carry trade liquidation alarm filtered, the real risk is in global yields! The JP central bank may raise rates by 25bp to 0.75% in December, reaching a high not seen since 1995. The market is worried that the appreciation of the yen will trigger liquidation of carry trades (borrowing low-yield yen to invest in high-yield assets), severely impacting BTC. However, analysts overlook a key point: Japanese interest rates remain much lower than those in the United States (3.75%), with a significant gap that suppresses large-scale liquidations; the rate hike has already been priced in by the market, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at 1.95%, a high it has maintained for months; speculators hold net long positions in yen, limiting further appreciation space. The real risk: Japan's tightening could raise global bond yields, increase borrowing costs, and suppress valuations of risk assets, including BTC. With liquidity tightening, short-term volatility intensifies. Bulls should remain alert: pay attention to global interest rate dynamics, and don't just focus on the yen!