#降息预期

The probability of a rate cut has exceeded 90%.

Only 4 days remain until this week's core event, and the market has fully absorbed the baseline scenario, anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut.

Here is an objective analysis of the current situation:

1) Rate cut of 25 basis points

A slight increase or continued sideways movement. This scenario has been fully anticipated by the market.

Even a slight decline would not be surprising, as a few statements from Powell could trigger a chain sell-off.

2) Rate cut of 50 basis points

This would ignite a euphoric market rally. A strong impulsive surge.

The market has not fully absorbed this expectation, and the reaction will be extremely intense and bullish. It is considered a "very low probability scenario."

3) Maintain interest rates

A major negative surprise.

A failure to meet market expectations would lead to a deep correction, testing previous low levels.

4) Rate hike of 25 basis points

A systemic black swan event. The entire market will suffer a severe blow.

My judgment

99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut

1% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut