#ETH走势分析 The balance of Ethereum (ETH) on major centralized exchanges has dropped to a historical low — only 8.7% (or approximately 8.8%) of ETH remains on exchanges, marking the first time it has fallen this low since 2015.

Since July 2025, ETH has been flowing out of exchanges on a large scale — many ETH have been transferred to staking, custody, Layer-2, DeFi, and other uses, instead of being kept on exchanges for “instant sale.”

Analysts believe this indicates that ETH is entering the “tightest supply environment” — in other words, if demand returns (buying pressure/capital inflow), and supply is limited, it could push prices upwards.

On the other hand, there are also technical and macroeconomic factors affecting ETH — recently, prices have fluctuated around $3000, with market sentiment and macroeconomic factors (such as interest rates and risk appetite) remaining key variables.

✅ “Less ETH on exchanges = less possibility for immediate selling” — when a lot of ETH is locked in staking, custody, or DeFi, it indicates that people are more inclined to hold long-term rather than engage in short-term speculation. This supply tension is very beneficial for a long-term bullish outlook.

📈 Tightening supply + potential demand = conditions for price increase

— If there is new buying or capital inflow into ETH, this structure of “shrinking supply + unchanged/increasing demand” is very likely to become the “fuel” driving prices.

⚠️ However, there is still volatility risk in prices — although the on-chain structure appears bullish, ETH prices are significantly influenced by macro factors and market sentiment in the short term — interest rate hikes, risk asset sell-offs, and technical pressure could all weigh down ETH.

🎯 More suitable for medium to long-term holders/investors — for those willing to hold long-term and are optimistic about the Ethereum ecosystem (staking, DeFi, Layer-2), this period is an opportunity to accumulate/hold; for short-term speculators, be mindful of volatility risk.