12.7 Ethereum Market Analysis
From the operations during this period, it particularly feels like a distribution. The immediate recovery after a drop of over a hundred points shows the premeditated actions of the major players, signaling the initial signs of a bear market. After harvesting a wave between 3200-3600, there hasn't been an opportunity to recover at the highest range. Currently, it is oscillating between 2600-3200, creating high expectations for short-term traders; a slight increase of one or two hundred points leads to bullish calls, which is what the major players enjoy. We need to remember that we enter the market to achieve results or gain experience, which can also be applied to major A-shares and gold, establishing our analysis system to understand the long-term layout of the major players, thus enabling us to follow their lead.
It can be seen that the intensity of the buying frenzy in the chart is not high, followed by a natural market rebound, and then a retest. Unexpectedly, players are not buying at all; this wave at 3239 might very well be a peak, similar to the area around 3600. At most, we might tolerate a strong bullish breakout above the 3239 high, only to see it immediately fall back. Therefore, we can prudently place short orders between 3240-3250, as entering at this position offers a 70% win rate. According to my understanding, this point becomes the best short point, which aligns with what was previously mentioned as LPSY (it must be a strong bullish candle, predicting a wave, breaking through and then immediately falling back, followed by a gradual decline to the middle of the range, specifically positions around 2950-3000, directly showing a strong bearish candle breaking the low at 2620, if we consider this support as an ice line, also known as breaking the ice).
The above is the thought process for left-side pending orders. If it does not go as we expect, with fluctuations within 100 points tonight and tomorrow, then we might need to enter a position at market price, narrowing losses and continuously trial and error. The first trial order can be made around 3045. If the market does not show a strong JOC breakout and remains stable at our current high without falling back, we will not open long positions. We don't need to participate in every market fluctuation; we should make predictions and expectations. If some scenarios fall outside our predictions, then patiently waiting is certainly the best decision $ETH
