$BTC is oscillating below $90,000, with market attention focused on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December. According to analysis from XWIN Research Japan, if rates remain unchanged, Bitcoin could consolidate in the $60,000–$80,000 range until the end of the year. Expectations for a rate cut have plummeted from over 70% to 40–50%, with tightening liquidity putting pressure on risk assets.

The macro background is complex. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of employment data, and inflation remains close to 3%, leaving policymakers without a clear view. Historically, a tightening environment tends to suppress risk assets, and this month's market correction has validated that pattern. Leveraged positions are particularly vulnerable in a low liquidity environment.

However, on-chain data shows potential support. Exchange stablecoin reserves have reached a historic high of $72.2 billion. Each major rebound in 2025 has been accompanied by similar capital accumulation, indicating strong “off-market liquidity” waiting for macro signals. If policy risks subside, this capital could quickly shift to Bitcoin.

Multiple analysts deny the narrative of a “crypto winter.” Bitwise and HashKey point out that this round of declines resembles a macro-driven correction rather than a systemic collapse. Unlike in the past, the current cycle has not seen a catastrophic event like FTX; instead, there has been continued progress in infrastructure such as tokenization and stablecoin expansion.

Conclusion: Bitcoin's short-term movement depends on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. If rates remain unchanged, BTC may consolidate in the $60K–$80K range, but the accumulation of stablecoin reserves provides strong fuel for a future rebound. Investors should pay attention to policy signals and capital flows, as these will determine whether Bitcoin can regain strength in early 2026.

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