Recently, have you also noticed —
Why is U getting cheaper and cheaper?
Several friends have been asking me in private messages: "Is it going to crash?"
First, let me state the most critical point:
It's not that USDT has issues, but that the off-market premium is decreasing.
Why is it dropping? The reason is actually very simple, but many people overthink it.
① The market has cooled down, and there are very few people buying U.
The market isn't in a major uptrend, new players aren't entering, and old players are on the sidelines.
There are many selling U, but few willing to buy, so prices naturally drop.
This isn't a problem with the currency; it's a problem with people's sentiment.
② The cash-out wave has arrived, and everyone is converting U.
Recently, there are particularly many people exiting the circle, liquidating, running away, and settling:
Projects are being cut, malls are shrinking, arbitrage parties are withdrawing, all selling U.
Once selling pressure accumulates, off-market prices will definitely drop.
③ OTC merchants are struggling to survive and can only drastically lower prices.
Regulation is getting tighter, merchant risks are rising,
collecting U has become cautious → prices drop → fees increase → buying interest weakens.
This is a vicious cycle, but it has nothing to do with the essence of USDT.
④ Exchange rates are stable, and arbitrage parties have stopped playing.
In the past, some people relied on "the difference in the dollar exchange rate" to trade U,
now the RMB is stable, the space has shrunk, and arbitrage opportunities have completely disappeared.
With insufficient demand, prices will naturally drop.
In summary:
U is dropping, not a crash, but the market is not hot.
The true indicator of sentiment isn't the K-line; it's U's price behavior:
U rising = new players flooding in
U stable = market hesitation
U falling = retail investors are withdrawing
Currently, it's the third scenario: retail investors are exiting, and the market is catching its breath.
Don't be scared; this drop belongs to "changes in off-market structure,"
the external market is functioning normally, and on-chain data is also normal,
it's just that sentiment has cooled down, and the premium has retreated.
As for what to do?
For those looking to buy at the bottom or enter the circle:
Now buying U is actually more cost-effective because the cost is lower.
For those hoping to profit from U's price difference:
Stop dreaming; currently, the arbitrage space is close to zero.
Always remember the simplest rule:
U is not an investment product; it’s just a bridge.
When a bull market comes, everyone rushes to buy bricks, and prices naturally rise.
When the market is sluggish, no one is rushing for bricks, so they are cheap.
The market hasn't worsened; it's just cooled down.
Once the heat returns, U will naturally rise again.