– A Deep Dive into On-Chain and Technical Analysis
| December 7, 2025
In the context of our analysis between ($BTC ) and ($XRP ), it is time to delve into more advanced technical data. While BTC recovers from its 30% correction from $126K (currently trading at ~$89,900), and XRP consolidates at $2.090 after an 18% drop in November, on-chain and technical indicators reveal intriguing patterns. Using metrics like MVRV, velocity, Fibonacci retracements, and codebase updates, we explore whether these assets are ready for a year-end rally or face more volatility. Based on fresh data from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and CoinCodex as of December 7, the outlook is mixed: BTC shows signs of a "healthy reset" with LTH accumulation, while XRP exhibits record velocity but strong technical resistance. Let's look at the numbers. 1. Advanced On-Chain Data: Beyond the Basics On-chain data not only measures activity; it reveals investor behavior. For BTC, the focus is on whale concentration and realized price; for XRP, on velocity and ETF flows. Bitcoin (BTC): Leverage Reset and Institutional Accumulation
MVRV Ratio and Z-Score: The MVRV Z-Score has fallen to 1.43 (from 3.36 at the peak of $100K), entering into "historical buy zone" – similar to pre-rally setups in 2023. This indicates that BTC is not overvalued, with room for upside without a bubble. web3.gate.com The average realized price is ~$50K-$55K, with 70% of holders in profit.
Whale Concentration: The top 1% controls 90% of the supply (Gini 0.4677, slight increase in Q1 2025), but whales (≥1K BTC) have accumulated +375K BTC in 30 days, with +47.584 BTC just in December – the strongest reversal of the year. cryptoslate.com This contrasts with ETF outflows ($48B net since October), but recent inflows of $148M in 24h (FBTC +$67M) indicate institutional rotation.
Active Addresses and Transaction Volume: 98M+ active addresses (+30% YoY), with on-chain volume $85B+ in 24h. On-chain fees correlate with market performance, showing spikes in Ordinals v2 and Runes (BTC-bound assets). web3.gate.com Exchange reserves: 2.387M BTC (multi-year low, -6K/week), amplifying illiquidity for explosive moves.
Recent Technical Updates: In October 2025, overhaul of OP_RETURN removed the limit of 80 bytes for larger on-chain data; November brought a security audit with no critical vulnerabilities; and a BIP for "chain code delegation" improves privacy in multisig. coinmarketcap.com
XRP: Record Velocity and LTH Sell Pressure
Velocity and On-Chain Flows: Velocity reached 0.0324 on December 2 – annual high – indicating rapid circulation (+900% in payment volume vs. 2024, peaks of $58B in 24h). crypto-economy.com +1 This reflects "liquidity injection" and whale activity (+7.6M XRP daily), but the 30-day MA of whale flow is negative, with LTH (1-3 years) reducing positions (1.749B XRP at $2.445-$2.460). coincentral.com
Exchange Reserves and ETF Inflows: Reserves on exchanges -29% since February (billions to cold storage), reducing sell pressure. ETF XRP attracted $640M+ in initial inflows ($59M trading volume), but spot outflows persist. coincentral.com Transactions: 110B accumulated in 2025, with 82M+ active wallets (+30%).
HODL Waves and Distribution: LTH selling creates resistance at $2.28 (0.618 Fib), while retail absorbs at lows. Open interest in derivatives >$1.39B, with $412M in liquidations in 24h. coinmarketcap.com
Technical Updates: Alert from validators on December 5 for urgent upgrades (bugs and network exclusion); batch transactions (June 2025) for mass payments; and smart escrows with oracles (upcoming). coinmarketcap.com
Technical Metric
Bitcoin (BTC)
XRP
MVRV Z-Score
1.43 (Buy Zone)
N/A (Focus on Velocity)
Velocity
Low (VDD Green Zone)
0.0324 (Annual High)
Whale Accumulation
+375K BTC (30d)
+7.6M XRP (Daily)
Exchange Reserves
2.387M BTC (-6K/week)
-29% (Since Feb)
Active Addresses
98M+ (+30% YoY)
82M+ (+30% 2025)
2. Technical Analysis: Patterns and Forecasts. Bitcoin: Bearish Technical, Bullish On-Chain
Indicators: RSI 52 (neutral), MACD +787 (bullish momentum). 27/30 technical indicators bearish (CoinCodex), with 40% green days in 30d and volatility 6.62%. coincodex.com Fibonacci: Near the 38.2% retracement at $98.100 (range March-November 2025); short-term holder cost basis ~$104.600.
Patterns: Consolidation at $80K-$90K (support $81K-$89K, resistance $93K). Elliott Wave 4 suggests downside to $69K-$74K before Wave 5. BoJ rate hike (December) could unwind yen-carry, pressuring risk-off. mrktedge.ai
Forecast: -0.14% at $89.343 (January 6, 2026); potential +18-22% to $112K-$116K end December if break >$93K. Long term: $120K-$125K (CoinDCX). coindcx.com
XRP: Strong Resistance, Potential Momentum
Indicators: RSI 38-41 (weak, not oversold); Stochastic RSI bullish crossover in oversold (preceded +600% and +130% in 2025). Trading below 20/50/100/200-day EMAs (persistent bearish); Bollinger Bands narrowing (preparing breakout). coindcx.com +1
Patterns: Double-bottom with resistance $2.459; falling wedge suggests upside if break $2.28 (0.618 Fib). Support $1.77-$1.86; rejection at $2.18-$2.33 EMA cluster.
Forecast: $2.75-$3.10 if hold >$2.28 (+25-40%); downside to $1.98 if flash crash (due to $412M liquidations). Long term: $5.05 end 2025, $8-$10.50 in 2028. coinpedia.org +1
Conclusion: Prepared for Volatility, but with Solid Fundamentals. These technical data reinforce the narrative: BTC is in a "network reset" (leverage flushed, LTH accumulating), with on-chain bullish despite 27 bearish indicators – ideal for a rebound post-Fed (FOMC December 9-10). coindesk.com XRP, with velocity at highs and ETF inflows, faces resistance but prepares for a "sustainable rally" if it breaks $2.28. coinpedia.org In a market with shallow liquidity (year-end + BoJ risks), both could see +20-40% in December if macro cooperates (87% odds of Fed cut). Recommendation: Monitor MVRV for BTC and velocity for XRP; use tools like Glassnode for alerts.
Do you want a customized dashboard or focus on a specific indicator? Comment below. Not financial advice; DYOR.
